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The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models

Author

Listed:
  • Burgess, Stephen

    () (Bank of England)

  • Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio

    () (International Monetary Fund)

  • Groth, Charlotta

    () (Zurich Insurance Group)

  • Harrison, Richard

    () (Bank of England)

  • Monti, Francesca

    () (Bank of England)

  • Theodoridis, Konstantinos

    () (Bank of England)

  • Waldron, Matt

    () (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper introduces the Bank of England's new forecasting platform and provides examples of how it can be applied to practical forecasting problems. The platform consists of four components: COMPASS, a structural central organising model; a suite of models, used to fill in the gaps in the economics of COMPASS and provide cross-checks on the forecast; MAPS, a macroeconomic modelling and projection toolkit; and EASE, a user interface. The platform has been in use since the end of 2011 in support of production of the projections produced for the Monetary Policy Committee’s quarterly Inflation Reports. In this paper we provide a full description of COMPASS, including discussion of its estimation and its properties. We also illustrate how the suite of models can be used to mitigate some of the trade-offs inherent in building a projection with a central organising model such as COMPASS, and discuss the role of the suite in addressing problems of model misspecification.

Suggested Citation

  • Burgess, Stephen & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & Groth, Charlotta & Harrison, Richard & Monti, Francesca & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Waldron, Matt, 2013. "The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models," Bank of England working papers 471, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0471
    as

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; macro-modelling; misspecification;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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