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The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Paul Hubert & Becky Maule, 2016. "Policy and Macro Signals as Inputs to Inflation Expectation Formation," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459462, HAL.
  2. Dieppe, Alistair & Georgiadis, Georgios & Ricci, Martino & Van Robays, Ine & van Roye, Björn, 2018. "ECB-Global: Introducing the ECB's global macroeconomic model for spillover analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 78-98.
  3. Simona Malovana & Josef Bajzik & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Jan Janku, 2020. "A Prolonged Period of Low Interest Rates: Unintended Consequences," Research and Policy Notes 2020/02, Czech National Bank.
  4. King, Philip & Millard, Stephen, 2014. "Modelling the service sector," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58234, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  5. Hendry, David F. & Martinez, Andrew B., 2017. "Evaluating multi-step system forecasts with relatively few forecast-error observations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 359-372.
  6. Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James, 2021. "Does judgment improve macroeconomic density forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1247-1260.
  7. Burgess, Stephen & Burrows, Oliver & Godin, Antoine & Kinsella, Stephen & Millard, Stephen, 2016. "A dynamic model of financial balances for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 614, Bank of England.
  8. de Groot, Oliver & Haas, Alexander, 2023. "The signalling channel of negative interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 87-103.
  9. Bell, Venetia & Co, Lai Wah & Stone, Sophie & Wallis, gavin`, 2014. "Nowcasting UK GDP growth," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(1), pages 58-68.
  10. Mr. Christopher Carroll & Mr. Martin Sommer & Mr. Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects," IMF Working Papers 2012/219, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Kristin Forbes & Lewis Kirkham & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2021. "A Trendy Approach to UK Inflation Dynamics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 23-75, September.
  12. Wieland, Volker & Binder, Michael & Lieberknecht, Philipp & Quintana, Jorge, 2017. "Model Uncertainty in Macroeconomics: On the Implications of Financial Frictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 12013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series 2624, European Central Bank.
  14. Ferrero, Andrea & Harrison, Richard & Nelson, Benjamin, 2018. "House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 13400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Tony Hall & Jan Jacobs & Adrian Pagan, "undated". "Macro-Econometric System Modelling @75," NCER Working Paper Series 95, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  16. Delia Sih Chien Macaluso & Michael McMahon, 2022. "MPC monetary communication: children of the revolution(s)," Economics Series Working Papers 987, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  17. Gábor Pintér, 2019. "House Prices and Job Losses," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 991-1013.
  18. Michael Chin & Thomai Filippeli & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Cross-Country Co-movement in Long-Term Interest Rates: A DSGE Approach," Working Papers 753, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  19. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  20. Lepetyuk, Vadym & Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei, 2020. "When the U.S. catches a cold, Canada sneezes: A lower-bound tale told by deep learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  21. Haberis, Alex & Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matthew, 2017. "Uncertain forward guidance," Bank of England working papers 654, Bank of England.
  22. Christopher G Gibbs & Jonathan Hambur & Gabriela Nodari, 2018. "DSGE Reno: Adding a Housing Block to a Small Open Economy Model," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  23. Georgios Georgiadis & Saskia Mösle, 2020. "Introducing dominant‐currency pricing in the ECB's global macroeconomic model," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 234-256, August.
  24. Jaromir Tonner, 2022. "Current trends in macroeconomic modelling in central banks in light of the turbulent nature of recent events," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - July 2022, pages 14-20, Czech National Bank.
  25. Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish & Daniel M. Rees, 2022. "International spillovers of forward guidance shocks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 131-160, January.
  26. Robert Jump & Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2017. "Wage led aggregate demand in the United Kingdom," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 565-584, September.
  27. Ásgeir Daníelsson & Lúdvik Elíasson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Svava J. Haraldsdóttir & Lilja S. Kro & Thórarinn G. Pétursson & Thorsteinn S. Sveinsson, 2019. "QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy Version 4.0," Economics wp82, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  28. Alex Haberis & Riccardo M. Masolo & Kate Reinold, 2019. "Deflation Probability and the Scope for Monetary Loosening in the United Kingdom," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 233-277, March.
  29. Aleksandra Babii, 2019. "Exchange Rates Co-movement and International Trade," 2019 Meeting Papers 1150, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  30. Markus Kirchner & Rodrigo Tranamil, 2016. "Calvo Wages Vs. Search Frictions: a Horse Race in a DSGE Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 778, Central Bank of Chile.
  31. Hess Chung & Edward Herbst & Michael T. Kiley, 2015. "Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 289-344.
  32. John Duffy & Yue Li, 2016. "Lifecycle Consumption Under Different Income Profiles: Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 161702, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  33. Kenneth L. Judd & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2017. "Lower Bounds on Approximation Errors to Numerical Solutions of Dynamic Economic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 991-1012, May.
  34. Michelle Lewis & C. John McDermott, 2016. "New Zealand's experience with changing its inflation target and the impact on inflation expectations," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 343-361, September.
  35. Fawcett, Nicholas & Koerber, Lena & Masolo, Riccardo & Waldron, Matthew, 2015. "Evaluating UK point and density forecasts from an estimated DSGE model: the role of off-model information over the financial crisis," Bank of England working papers 538, Bank of England.
  36. Lindé, J. & Smets, F. & Wouters, R., 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks’ Macro Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2185-2262, Elsevier.
  37. Noel Rapa, 2016. "MEDSEA : a small open economy DSGE model for Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/05/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
  38. Caputo, Rodrigo & Herrera, Luis Oscar, 2017. "Following the leader? The relevance of the Fed funds rate for inflation targeting countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 25-52.
  39. David F Hendry & John N J Muellbauer, 2018. "The future of macroeconomics: macro theory and models at the Bank of England," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 287-328.
  40. Hinterschweiger, Marc & Khairnar, Kunal & Ozden, Tolga & Stratton, Tom, 2021. "Macroprudential policy interactions in a sectoral DSGE model with staggered interest rates," Bank of England working papers 904, Bank of England.
  41. Smith, L. Vanessa & Tarui, Nori & Yamagata, Takashi, 2021. "Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on global fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
  42. Andrew G. Haldane & Arthur E. Turrell, 2019. "Drawing on different disciplines: macroeconomic agent-based models," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 39-66, March.
  43. Michael Chin & Ferre De Graeve & Thomai Filippeli & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2022. "Understanding International Long-term Interest Rate Comovement," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 147-189, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  44. Millard, Stephen, 2015. "The Great Recession and the UK labour market," Bank of England working papers 566, Bank of England.
  45. Ben Groom & David Maddison Pr., 2019. "New Estimates of the Elasticity of Marginal Utility for the UK," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(4), pages 1155-1182, April.
  46. Harrison, Richard, 2015. "Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 196-213.
  47. Kapetanios, George & Masolo, Riccardo M. & Petrova, Katerina & Waldron, Matthew, 2019. "A time-varying parameter structural model of the UK economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
  48. Dison, Will & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Do macro shocks matter for equities?," Bank of England working papers 692, Bank of England.
  49. Romain Plassard, 2020. "Making a Breach: The Incorporation of Agent-Based Models into the Bank of England's Toolkit," GREDEG Working Papers 2020-30, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
  50. Kristin Forbes, 2018. "Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound: Less Potent? More International? More Sticky?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 521-541.
  51. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Kilponen, Juha & Papadopoulou, Niki & Zimic, Srečko & Aldama, Pierre & Langenus, Geert & Alvarez, Luis Julian & Lemoine, Matthieu & Angelini, Elena, 2021. "Review of macroeconomic modelling in the Eurosystem: current practices and scope for improvement," Occasional Paper Series 267, European Central Bank.
  52. Ágeir Daníelsson & Lúdvík Elíasson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Björn A. Hauksson & Ragnhildur Jónsdóttir & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2006. "QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy," Economics wp32, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  53. Boneva, Lena & Fawcett, Nicholas & Masolo, Riccardo M. & Waldron, Matt, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy: Alternative forecasting methodologies and the role of off-model information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 100-120.
  54. Alex Haberis & Richard Harrison & Matt Waldron, 2014. "Transitory interest-rate pegs under imperfect credibility," Discussion Papers 1422, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  55. David Aikman & Julia Giese & Sujit Kapadia & Michael McLeay, 2023. "Targeting Financial Stability: Macroprudential or Monetary Policy?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(1), pages 159-242, March.
  56. Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2021. "Optimal policy with occasionally binding constraints: piecewise linear solution methods," Bank of England working papers 911, Bank of England.
  57. Chávez, Ricardo & García, Carlos J., 2016. "Reforma tributaria en fases," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(330), pages .275-310, abril-jun.
  58. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment," Discussion Papers 18-9, Bank of Canada.
  59. Baker, Jessica & Carreras, Oriol & Kirby, Simon & Meaning, Jack & Piggott, Rebecca, 2016. "Modelling events: The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 339-350.
  60. Güneş Kamber & Chris McDonald & Nicholas Sander & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "A structural model for policy analysis and forecasting: NZSIM," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  61. Domit, Sílvia & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy with a medium-scale Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1669-1678.
  62. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  63. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
  64. Jan Filacek & Ivan Sutoris, 2019. "Inflation Targeting Flexibility: The CNB's Reaction Function under Scrutiny," Research and Policy Notes 2019/02, Czech National Bank.
  65. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 199-255.
  66. Kamber, Gunes & McDonald, Chris & Sander, Nick & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2016. "Modelling the business cycle of a small open economy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 546-569.
  67. Francisco Louçã & Alexandre Abreu & Gonçalo Pessa Costa, 2021. "Disarray at the headquarters: Economists and Central bankers tested by the subprime and the COVID recessions [Forward guidance without common knowledge]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(2), pages 273-296.
  68. Dmitry Kreptsev & Sergei Seleznev, 2018. "Forecasting for the Russian Economy Using Small-Scale DSGE Models," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(2), pages 51-67, June.
  69. Juan Acosta & Beatrice Cherrier & François Claveau & Clément Fontan & Aurélien Goutsmedt & Francesco Sergi, 2023. "Six Decades of Economic Research at the Bank of England," Post-Print hal-04225628, HAL.
  70. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  71. Van Nguyen, Phuong, 2020. "Evaluating the forecasting accuracy of the closed- and open economy New Keynesian DSGE models," Dynare Working Papers 59, CEPREMAP.
  72. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/79hle3i1b69dqrocqsjarh6lb1 is not listed on IDEAS
  73. John Muellbauer, 2016. "Macroeconomics and Consumption," Economics Series Working Papers Paper-811, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  74. Chowla, Shiv & Quaglietti, Lucia & Rachel, Lukasz, 2014. "How have world shocks affected the UK economy?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(2), pages 167-179.
  75. Butt, Nick & Pugh, Alice, 2014. "Credit spreads: capturing credit conditions facing households and firms," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(2), pages 137-148.
  76. Sergiy Nikolaychuk & Yurii Sholomytskyi, 2015. "Using Macroeconomic Models for Monetary Policy in Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 233, pages 54-64, September.
  77. Duffy, John & Li, Yue, 2019. "Lifecycle consumption under different income profiles: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 74-94.
  78. Juan Guerra-Salas & Markus Kirchner & Rodrigo Tranamil, 2021. "Search Frictions and the Business Cycle in a Small Open Economy DSGE Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 258-279, January.
  79. Aikman, David & Bluwstein, Kristina & Karmakar, Sudipto, 2021. "A tail of three occasionally-binding constraints: a modelling approach to GDP-at-Risk," Bank of England working papers 931, Bank of England.
  80. Hackworth, Christopher & Radia, Amar & Roberts, Nyssa, 2013. "Understanding the MPC’s forecast performance since mid-2010," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(4), pages 336-350.
  81. Domit, Sílvia & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2016. "A Bayesian VAR benchmark for COMPASS," Bank of England working papers 583, Bank of England.
  82. Adam Goliński & Peter Spencer, 2021. "Modeling the Covid‐19 epidemic using time series econometrics," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(11), pages 2808-2828, November.
  83. Samvel S. Lazaryan & Evgenii V. Mayorov, 2018. "Prospects for the Use of DSGE Models by Finance Ministries: The Experience of Global Regulators," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 70-82, October.
  84. Harrison, Richard, 2021. "Flexible inflation targeting with active fiscal policy," Bank of England working papers 928, Bank of England.
  85. Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh & Luba Petersen, 2021. "Coordinating expectations through central bank projections," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(3), pages 883-918, September.
  86. Alban Moura, 2020. "LED: An estimated DSGE model of the Luxembourg economy for policy analysis," BCL working papers 147, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  87. Neroli Austin & Geordie Reid, 2017. "NZSIM: A model of the New Zealand economy for forecasting and policy analysis," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 80, pages 1-14, January.
  88. Francesco Sergi, 2020. "The Standard Narrative about DSGE Models in Central Banks’ Technical Reports," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 163-193, March.
  89. Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2020. "Forecasting inflation under uncertainty: The forgotten dog and the frisbee," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  90. Vadym Lepetyuk & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2017. "Should Central Banks Worry About Nonlinearities of their Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models?," Staff Working Papers 17-21, Bank of Canada.
  91. Harrison, Ricahrd, 2014. "Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86327, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  92. Silvio Michael de Azevedo Costa, 2016. "Structural Trends and Cycles in a DSGE Model for Brazil," Working Papers Series 434, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  93. Warapong Wongwachara & Bovonvich Jindarak & Nuwat Nookhwun & Sophon Tunyavetchakit & Chutipha Klungjaturavet, 2018. "Integrating Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: A New Framework," PIER Discussion Papers 100, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  94. Simona Malovaná & Josef Bajzík & Dominika Ehrenbergerová & Jan Janků, 2023. "A prolonged period of low interest rates in Europe: Unintended consequences," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 526-572, April.
  95. Naohisa Hirakata & Kazutoshi Kan & Akihiro Kanafuji & Yosuke Kido & Yui Kishaba & Tomonori Murakoshi & Takeshi Shinohara, 2019. "The Quarterly Japanese Economic Model (Q-JEM): 2019 version," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-7, Bank of Japan.
  96. Bernardo A. Furtado & Miguel A. Fuentes & Claudio J. Tessone, 2019. "Policy Modeling and Applications: State-of-the-Art and Perspectives," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-11, February.
  97. Bunn, Philip & Pugh, Alice & Yeates, Chris, 2018. "The distributional impact of monetary policy easing in the UK between 2008 and 2014," Bank of England working papers 720, Bank of England.
  98. Robert Calvert Jump & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2019. "Reconsidering the natural rate hypothesis," FMM Working Paper 45-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  99. Balatti, Mirco, 2020. "Inflation volatility in small and large advanced open economies," Working Paper Series 2448, European Central Bank.
  100. Aquilante, Tommaso & Chowla, Shiv & Dacic, Nikola & Haldane, Andrew & Masolo, Riccardo & Schneider, Patrick & Seneca, Martin & Tatomir, Srdan, 2019. "Market power and monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 798, Bank of England.
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