IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ice/wpaper/wp32.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Ágeir Daníelsson
  • Lúdvík Elíasson
  • Magnús F. Gudmundsson
  • Björn A. Hauksson
  • Ragnhildur Jónsdóttir
  • Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson
  • Thórarinn G. Pétursson

Abstract

This paper documents and describes the new Quarterly Macroeconomi Model of the Central Bank of Iceland (qmm). qmm and the underlying quar terly database have been under construction since 2001 at the Research and Forecasting Division of the Economics Department at the Bank. qmm is used by the Bank for forecasting and various policy simulations and therefore play a key role as an organisational framework for viewing the medium-term futur when formulating monetary policy at the Bank. This paper is mainly focused on the short and medium-term properties of qmm. Analysis of the steady state properties of the model are currently under way and will be reported in a separate paper in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Ágeir Daníelsson & Lúdvík Elíasson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Björn A. Hauksson & Ragnhildur Jónsdóttir & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2006. "QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy," Economics wp32, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  • Handle: RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sedlabanki.is/lisalib/getfile.aspx?itemid=4910
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    2. Martin Seneca, 2010. "A DSGE model for Iceland," Economics wp50, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    3. Kenneth West, 2003. "Monetary policy and the volatility of real exchange rates in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 175-196.
    4. Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
    5. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 622-645, June.
    6. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
    7. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    8. Keith B. Church & Joanne E. Sault & Silvia Sgherri & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Comparative Properties of Models of the UK Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 171(1), pages 106-122, January.
    9. repec:fip:fedgfn:2014-11-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    11. Flint Brayton & Peter A. Tinsley, 1996. "A guide to FRB/US: a macroeconomic model of the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1994. "A sticky-price manifesto," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 127-151, December.
    13. Ágeir Daníelsson & Lúdvík Elíasson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Björn A. Hauksson & Ragnhildur Jónsdóttir & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2006. "QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy," Economics wp32, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    14. José Dorich & Michael K. Johnston & Rhys R. Mendes & Stephen Murchison & Yang Zhang, 2013. "ToTEM II: An Updated Version of the Bank of Canada’s Quarterly Projection Model," Technical Reports 100, Bank of Canada.
    15. David L. Reifschneider & Robert J. Tetlow & John Williams, 1999. "Aggregate disturbances, monetary policy, and the macroeconomy: the FRB/US perspective," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 85(Jan), pages 1-19, January.
    16. Bårdsen, Gunnar & den Reijer, Ard & Jonasson, Patrik & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2011. "MOSES: Model of Swedish Economic Studies," Working Paper Series 249, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    17. Ashley Dunstan & David Hargreaves & Ozer Karagedikli, 2007. "The impact of fiscal policy on the business cycle," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 70, March.
    18. Burgess, Stephen & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & Groth, Charlotta & Harrison, Richard & Monti, Francesca & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Waldron, Matt, 2013. "The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models," Bank of England working papers 471, Bank of England.
    19. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D. & Reifschneider, David & Tetlow, Robert & Finan, Frederico, 2000. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 117-141.
    20. Eyal Argov & Emanuel Barnea & Alon Binyamini & Eliezer Borenstein & David Elkayam & Irit Rozenshtrom, 2012. "MOISE: A DSGE Model for the Israeli Economy," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2012.06, Bank of Israel.
    21. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    22. Keith B. Church & Joanne E. Sault & Silvia Sgherri & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Comparative Properties of Models of the UK Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 171(1), pages 106-122, January.
    23. Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison, 2006. "ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model," Technical Reports 97, Bank of Canada.
    24. Keith B. Church & Joanne E. Sault & Silvia Sgherri & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Comparative Properties of Models of the UK Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 171(1), pages 106-122, January.
    25. Argov, Eyal & Binyamini, Alon & Elkayam, David & Rozenshtrom, Irit, 2007. "A Small Macroeconomic Model to Support Inflation Targeting in Israel," MPRA Paper 4784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Gabriel Fagan & Julian Morgan, 2005. "An overview of the structural econometric models of euro-area central banks," Chapters, in: Gabriel Fagan & Julian Morgan (ed.), Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    27. Mara Meacci & David Turner, 2001. "Modelling Import Responsiveness for OECD Manufactures Trade," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 311, OECD Publishing.
    28. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    29. Már Guðmundsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson & Arnór Sighvatsson, 2000. "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy: The Case of Iceland," Economics wp08, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    30. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Jósef Sigurdsson, 2013. "How "Natural" is the Natural Rate? Unemployment Hysteresis in Iceland," Economics wp64, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    31. Gabriel Fagan & Julian Morgan (ed.), 2005. "Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3918.
    32. Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 2006/080, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2018. "Disinflation and improved anchoring of long-term inflation expectations - The Icelandic experience," Economics wp77, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    2. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Ásgerdur Pétursdóttir & Karen Á. Vignisdóttir, 2011. "Price setting in turbulent times," Economics wp54, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    3. Lúðvík Elíasson & Önundur Páll Ragnarsson, 2018. "Short-term renting of residential apartments. Effects of Airbnb in the Icelandic housing market," Economics wp76, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    4. Spruk, Rok, 2010. "Iceland's Economic and Financial Crisis: Causes, Consequences and Implications," MPRA Paper 29972, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ásgeir Daníelsson, 2008. "Accuracy in forecasting macroeconomic variables in Iceland," Economics wp39, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    6. Ásgeir Daníelsson & Lúdvik Elíasson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Svava J. Haraldsdóttir & Lilja S. Kro & Thórarinn G. Pétursson & Thorsteinn S. Sveinsson, 2019. "QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy Version 4.0," Economics wp82, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    7. Ágeir Daníelsson & Lúdvík Elíasson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Björn A. Hauksson & Ragnhildur Jónsdóttir & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2006. "QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy," Economics wp32, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    8. Martin Seneca, 2010. "A DSGE model for Iceland," Economics wp50, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    9. Francesco Macheda & Roberto Nadalini, 2019. "The Danger of a “Geyser Disease” Effect: Structural Fragility of the Tourism-Led Recovery in Iceland," Working Papers 0038, ASTRIL - Associazione Studi e Ricerche Interdisciplinari sul Lavoro.
    10. repec:pra:mprapa:46125 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Francesco Macheda & Roberto Nadalini, 2020. "The Danger of a “Geyser Disease†Effect: Structural Fragility of the Tourism-Led Recovery in Iceland," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 50-76, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ásgeir Daníelsson & Lúdvik Elíasson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Svava J. Haraldsdóttir & Lilja S. Kro & Thórarinn G. Pétursson & Thorsteinn S. Sveinsson, 2019. "QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy Version 4.0," Economics wp82, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    2. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    3. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    4. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.
    5. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
    6. John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2012. "Surprising Comparative Properties of Monetary Models: Results from a New Model Database," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(3), pages 800-816, August.
    7. Martin Seneca, 2010. "A DSGE model for Iceland," Economics wp50, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    8. Argov, Eyal, 2012. "The choice of a foreign price measure in a Bayesian estimated new-Keynesian model for Israel," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 408-420.
    9. Boivin, Jean & Kiley, Michael T. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 369-422, Elsevier.
    10. Ironside, Brian & Tetlow, Robert J., 2005. "Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: the Fed from 1996-2003," CEPR Discussion Papers 5305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2017. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: tales from 1001 shocks," Working Paper Series 2082, European Central Bank.
    12. Balatti, Mirco, 2020. "Inflation volatility in small and large advanced open economies," Working Paper Series 2448, European Central Bank.
    13. Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2001. "Forecast-based Monetary Policy in Sweden 1992-1998: A View from Within," Working Paper Series 120, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    14. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    15. Samvel S. Lazaryan & Evgenii V. Mayorov, 2018. "Prospects for the Use of DSGE Models by Finance Ministries: The Experience of Global Regulators," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 127006, Russia, issue 5, pages 70-82, October.
    16. Francesco Sergi, 2020. "The Standard Narrative about DSGE Models in Central Banks’ Technical Reports," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 163-193, March.
    17. Caputo, Rodrigo & Herrera, Luis Oscar, 2017. "Following the leader? The relevance of the Fed funds rate for inflation targeting countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 25-52.
    18. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    19. Volker Wieland, 2012. "Model comparison and robustness: a proposal for policy analysis after the financial crisis," Chapters, in: Robert M. Solow & Jean-Philippe Touffut (ed.), What’s Right with Macroeconomics?, chapter 2, pages 33-67, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Binder, Michael & Lieberknecht, Philipp & Quintana, Jorge & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Model Uncertainty in Macroeconomics: On the Implications of Financial Frictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 12013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Central Bank of Iceland) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Central Bank of Iceland to update the entry or send us the correct email address. General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedgvis.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.