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Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: tales from 1001 shocks

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  • Georgiadis, Georgios
  • Jančoková, Martina

Abstract

Financial globalisation and spillovers have gained immense prominence over the last two decades. Yet, powerful cross-border financial spillover channels have not become a standard element of structural monetary models. Against this background, we hypothesise that New Keynesian DSGE models that do not feature powerful financial spillover channels confound the effects of domestic and foreign disturbances when confronted with the data. We derive predictions from this hypothesis and subject them to data on monetary policy shock estimates for 29 economies obtained from more than 280 monetary models in the literature. Consistent with the predictions from our hypothesis we find: Monetary policy shock estimates obtained from New Keynesian DSGE models that do not account for powerful financial spillover channels are contaminated by a common global component; the contamination is more severe for economies that are more susceptible to financial spillovers in the data; and the shock estimates imply implausibly similar estimates of the global output spillovers from monetary policy in the US and the euro area. None of these findings applies to monetary policy shock estimates obtained from VAR and other statistical models, financial market expectations and the narrative approach. JEL Classification: F42, E52, C50

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  • Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2017. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: tales from 1001 shocks," Working Paper Series 2082, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172082
    Note: 2435756
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    1. Debarsy, Nicolas & Dossougoin, Cyrille & Ertur, Cem & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2018. "Measuring sovereign risk spillovers and assessing the role of transmission channels: A spatial econometrics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 21-45.
    2. Javier G. Gómez-Pineda, 2017. "Volatility spillovers and the global financial cycle across economies: evidence from a global semi-structural model," Borradores de Economia 1011, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Javier G. Gómez-Pineda, 2017. "Volatility Spillovers and Systemic Risk Across Economies: Evidence from a Global Semi-Structural Model," Borradores de Economia 1011, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Andrew Filardo & Pierre Siklos, 2018. "The cross-border credit channel and lending standards surveys," BIS Working Papers 723, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Carlos Caceres & Yan Carriere-Swallow & Bertrand Gruss, 2016. "Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy," IMF Working Papers 16/108, International Monetary Fund.

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    Keywords

    financial globalisation; monetary policy shocks; New Keynesian DSGE models; spillovers;

    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

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