IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkm/wpaper/382011.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Great Retrenchment: International Capital Flows During the Global Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti

    (International Monetary Fund and Centre for Economic Policy Research)

  • Cedric Tille

    (Graduate Institute for International and Development Studies and Centre for Economic Policy Research and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

Abstract

The current crisis saw an unprecedented collapse in international capital flows after years of rising financial globalization. We identify the stylized facts and main drivers of this development. The retrenchment in international capital flows is a highly heterogeneous phenomenon: first across time, being especially dramatic in the wake of the Lehman Brothers' failure, second across types of flows, with banking flows being the hardest hit due to their sensitivity of risk perception, and third across regions, with emerging economies experiencing a shorter-lived retrenchment than developed economies. Our econometric analysis shows that the magnitude of the retrenchment in capital flows across countries is linked to the extent of international financial integration, its specific nature-with countries relying on bank flows being the hardest hit-as well as domestic macroeconomic conditions and their connection to world trade flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cedric Tille, 2011. "The Great Retrenchment: International Capital Flows During the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers 382011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:382011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/42/ub_full_0_2_304_wp-no-38_2011-final-.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "Market Freedom and the Global Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 111-135, April.
    2. Aart Kraay & Norman Loayza & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2005. "Country Portfolios," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(4), pages 914-945, June.
    3. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2011. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 309-324, April.
    4. Richard H. Clarida, 2007. "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number clar06-2, June.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2008. "Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance Of Balance-Sheet Effects And Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 14026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jean Imbs, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 327-354, December.
    7. Mr. Marcos d Chamon & Mr. Jun I Kim & Mr. Christopher W. Crowe & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2009. "Coping with the Crisis: Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/008, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2008. "Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance Of Balance-Sheet Effects And Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 14026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Mehmet Fatih Ekinci & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Bent E. Sørensen, 2009. "Financial Integration within EU Countries: The Role of Institutions, Confidence and Trust," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 325-391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 480-486, May.
    11. Linda S. Goldberg & Craig Kennedy & Jason Miu, 2011. "Central bank dollar swap lines and overseas dollar funding costs," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(May), pages 3-20.
    12. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 67-102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Financial Openness, Sudden Stops, and Current-Account Reversals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 59-64, May.
    14. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2008. "Crises and Sudden Stops: Evidence from International Bond and Syndicated-Loan Markets," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 26, pages 107-130, December.
    15. Giorgio Barba Navaretti & Giacomo Calzolari & Alberto Franco Pozzolo & Micol Levi, 2010. "Multinational banking in Europe – financial stability and regulatory implications: lessons from the financial crisis [Cross subsidies, external financing constraints, and the contribution of the in," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25(64), pages 703-753.
    16. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S Goldberg, 2011. "Global Banks and International Shock Transmission: Evidence from the Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 41-76, April.
    17. Steven B. Kamin & Laurie DeMarco, 2010. "How did a domestic housing slump turn into a global financial crisis?," International Finance Discussion Papers 994, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. World Bank, 2009. "The World Bank Annual Report 2009," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4354, December.
    19. Christopher W. Crowe & Jonathan David Ostry & Jun I Kim & Marcos d Chamon & Atish R. Ghosh, 2009. "Coping with the Crisis; Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/08, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli‐Ozcan & Selin Sayek, 2009. "FDI, Productivity and Financial Development," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 111-135, January.
    21. World Bank, 2009. "The World Bank Annual Report 2009," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4356, December.
    22. Martin Schindler, 2009. "Measuring Financial Integration: A New Data Set," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 222-238, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cédric Tille, 2012. "Sailing Through This Storm? Capital Flows In Asia During The Crisis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 467-488, August.
    2. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2012. "Dollar illiquidity and central bank swap arrangements during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 326-340.
    3. repec:onb:oenbfi:y:2012:i:2:b:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2016. "Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 41-61.
    5. Seung-Gwan Baek & Chi-Young Song, 2016. "On the Determinants of Surges and Stops in Foreign Loans: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 405-445, July.
    6. Mr. Kalin I Tintchev, 2013. "Connected to Whom? International Interbank Borrowing During the Global Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2013/014, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    8. Kürşat Önder, Yasin, 2022. "Liquidity crises, liquidity lines and sovereign risk," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    9. J. Scott Davis & Michael B. Devereux & Changhua Yu, 2020. "Sudden Stops in Emerging Economies: The Role of World Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention," Globalization Institute Working Papers 405, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 10 Sep 2021.
    10. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Nadir Ocal, 2014. "Financial Integration and Growth: A Nonlinear Panel Data Analysis," ERC Working Papers 1415, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2014.
    11. Al-Saffar, Yaser & Ridinger, Wolfgang & Whitaker, Simon, 2015. "Financial Stability Paper No 24: The role of external balance sheets in the financial crisis," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 24, Bank of England.
    12. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2012. "Drivers of Output Loss during the 2008–09 Crisis: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 46-64.
    13. Dell'Erba, Salvatore & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2015. "FDI, debt and capital controls," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 29-50.
    14. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    15. Marcel Fratzscher, 2014. "Capital Controls and Foreign Exchange Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 7, pages 205-253, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Feldkircher, Martin, 2014. "The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-49.
    18. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory I: The Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 1725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Fabiani, Josefina & Fidora, Michael & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas & Zorell, Nico, 2021. "Sudden stops and asset purchase programmes in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2597, European Central Bank.
    20. Carvalho, Daniel, 2020. "Leverage and valuation effects: How global liquidity shapes sectoral balance sheets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    21. Chen Ray-Bing & Lee Kuo-Jung & Chen Yi-Chi & Chu Chi-Hsiang, 2017. "On the determinants of the 2008 financial crisis: a Bayesian approach to the selection of groups and variables," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(5), pages 1-17, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:382011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hkimrhk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: HKIMR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hkimrhk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.