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The First Global Recession in Decades

Listed author(s):
  • Jean Imbs

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne, PSE - Paris School of Economics, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)

This paper uses monthly data on industrial production to estimate the distribution of international business cycle correlations since the 1980s, with a focus on the current turmoil. The degree of international correlation in national business cycles since the end of 2008 is unprecedented in three decades. Since December 2008, there has been a sizable and significant upward shift in the cross-sectional distribution of cycles synchronization, especially between advanced economies. The magnitude of the shift is unprecedented in recent history, even relative to what happened following 1973 after alternative shocks with worldwide consequences. The shift does not arise because volatilities changed with the crisis. Both goods and assets trade have contributed to this synchronization. The (large and significant) synchronization among OECD economies is associated with financial openness. The (weaker) diffusion among developing economies tends to happen between trade partners.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number hal-00612515.

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Date of creation: Dec 2010
Publication status: Published in IMF Economic Review, 2010, 58 (2), pp.327-354. <10.1057/imfer.2010.13>
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-00612515
DOI: 10.1057/imfer.2010.13
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00612515
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

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  1. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2005. "Breaks in the Variability and Comovement of G-7 Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 721-740, November.
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  8. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
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  10. Coeurdacier, Nicolas, 2009. "Do trade costs in goods market lead to home bias in equities?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 86-100, February.
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  13. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
  14. Imbs, Jean, 2006. "The real effects of financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 296-324, March.
  15. Kose, M. Ayhan & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2006. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 267-295, March.
  16. N/A, 2009. "On the Recession," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 24(3), pages 253-253, May.
  17. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró, José Luis, 2009. "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 7292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  20. Stephan Danninger & Irina Tytell & Ravi Balakrishnan & Selim Elekdag, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 09/133, International Monetary Fund.
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