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Crises and Sudden Stops: Evidence from International Bond and Syndicated-Loan Markets

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  • Graciela L. Kaminsky

Abstract

The crises in Mexico, Thailand, and Russia in the 1990s spread quite rapidly to countries as far apart as South Africa and Pakistan. In the aftermath of these crises, many emerging economies lost access to international capital markets. Using data on international primary issuance, this paper studies the determinants of contagion and sudden stops following those crises. The results indicate that contagion and sudden stops tend to occur in economies with financial fragility and current account problems. They also show that high integration in international capital markets exposes countries to sudden stops even in the absence of domestic vulnerabilities.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14249.

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Date of creation: Aug 2008
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Publication status: published as Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2008. "Crises and Sudden Stops: Evidence from International Bond and Syndicated-Loan Markets," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 26, pages 107-130, December.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14249
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
  • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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  1. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1999. "Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2008. "The center and the periphery: The globalization of financial turmoil," MPRA Paper 14100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Dooley, Michael P, 2000. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 256-72, January.
  4. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why Are Currency Crises Regional?," NBER Working Papers 6806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Roberto Rigobón & Kristin Forbes, 2001. "Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement, and Policy Implications," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-46, January.
  6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  9. Claessens, Stijn & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1998. "How does foreign entry affect the domestic banking market?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1918, The World Bank.
  10. Graciela Laura Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2008. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: Financial Liberalization and Stock Market Cycles," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 253-292.
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1999. "Regional Contagion and the Globalization of Securities Markets," NBER Working Papers 7153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  13. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Spillovers Through Banking Centers; A Panel Data Analysis," IMF Working Papers 00/88, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:

  1. Cerutti, Eugenio & Hale, Galina & Minoiu, Camelia, 2014. "Financial crises and the composition of cross-border lending," Working Paper Series 2014-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," Scholarly Articles 4669671, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  3. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2011. "Sudden stops : are global and local investors alike ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5569, The World Bank.
  4. Boukef Jlassi, Nabila & Hamdi, Helmi, 2013. "Financial liberalization, disaggregated capital flows and banking crisis: Evidence from developing countries," MPRA Paper 55779, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
  5. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cedric Tille, 2011. "The Great Retrenchment: International Capital Flows During the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers 382011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  6. Kalin I Tintchev, 2013. "Connected to Whom? International Interbank Borrowing During the Global Crisis," IMF Working Papers 13/14, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Syllignakis, Manolis N. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 717-732, October.

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