IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/630.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A model of crises in emerging markets

Author

Listed:
  • Michael P. Dooley

Abstract

This paper presents a \"first generation\" model of speculative attacks on emerging markets. Credit-constrained governments accumulate liquid assets in order to self-insure against shocks to national consumption. Governments also insure poorly regulated domestic financial markets. Given this policy regime, a variety of internal and external shocks generate capital inflows followed by anticipated speculative attacks. The model suggests that a common shock generated capital inflows to emerging markets in Asia and Latin America after 1989. Country-specific factors determined the timing of speculative attacks. Economic reform programs may also have generated capital inflow/crisis sequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael P. Dooley, 1998. "A model of crises in emerging markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 630, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:630
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1998/630/default.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1998/630/ifdp630.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Michael P. Dooley, 1988. "Capital Flight: A Response to Differences in Financial Risks," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(3), pages 422-436, September.
    3. George A. Akerlof & Paul M. Romer, 1993. "Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2), pages 1-74.
    4. R McKinnon, 1991. "Financial Control in the Transition to a Market Economy," CEP Discussion Papers dp0040, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Dale W. Henderson & Stephen W. Salant, 1976. "Market anticipations, government policy, and the price of gold," International Finance Discussion Papers 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    8. Gerald Caprio & Michael Dooley & Danny Leipziger & Carl Walsh, 1996. "The lender of last resort function under a currency board: The case of Argentina," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 625-650, March.
    9. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1996. "Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_96-1, January-J.
    10. Vittorio Corbo & Jaime de Melo & James Tybout, 2015. "What Went Wrong with the Recent Reforms in the Southern Cone," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 2, pages 21-54, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    12. Dooley, Michael & Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Kletzer, Kenneth, 1996. "Is the Debt Crisis History? Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(1), pages 27-50, January.
    13. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    14. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    15. Mr. James M. Boughton, 1997. "From Suez to Tequila: The IMF As Crisis Manager," IMF Working Papers 1997/090, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Glick,Reuven (ed.), 1998. "Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521623230.
    17. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1992. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 357-394, June.
    18. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    19. Dooley, Michael P, 1996. "Capital Controls and Emerging Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 197-205, July.
    20. Mr. Ilan Goldfajn & Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises: The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 1997/087, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 1997/079, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 137-137.
    23. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 1996. "Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386713, December.
    24. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1997. "Brazil's Incomplete Stabilization and Reform," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 367-404.
    25. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1996. "Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The "Overborrowing Syndrome"," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, pages 7-50, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24.
    27. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    28. Wigmore, Barrie A., 1987. "Was the Bank Holiday of 1933 Caused by a Run on the Dollar?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 739-755, September.
    29. Robert P. Flood & Nancy P. Marion, 1996. "Speculative Attacks: Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies," NBER Working Papers 5789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sweta Saxena & Kar-yiu Wong, 1999. "Currency Crises and Capital Control: A Survey," Working Papers 0045, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Dooley, Michael P. & Shrestha, Sona, 1999. "Latin America and East Asia in the context of an insurance model of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 659-681, August.
    3. Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
    4. Sweta C. Saxena, 2004. "The Changing Nature of Currency Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18, pages 321-350, July.
    5. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    6. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    7. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante & Mlinarević, Katarina, 2003. "Determinants of currency disturbances in transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 83140, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2003.
    8. Sweta C. Saxena, 2004. "The Changing Nature of Currency Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 321-350, July.
    9. Marek Dabrowski, 2002. "Currency Crises in Emerging - Market Economis: Causes, Consequences and Policy Lessons," CASE Network Reports 0051, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    10. Karatas, B., 2014. "Financial crisis and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 41e463f0-e122-4379-8db5-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    14. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets : Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    15. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    16. Tassos Anastasatos & Constantina Manou, 2008. "Speculative Attacks on the Drachma and the Changeover to the Euro," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 31, pages 49-77, November.
    17. Ms. Valerie Cerra & Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2000. "Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia: A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2000/060, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Ryota Nakatani, 2017. "The Effects of Productivity Shocks, Financial Shocks, and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 2545-2561, November.
    19. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
    20. Weber Ralf L., 1999. "Währungs- und Finanzkrisen: Ursachen und Lehren für Transformationsländer," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 50(1), pages 371-404, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric models; Banking market; Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:630. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.