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Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors

  • Guillermo A. Calvo

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Leonardo Leiderman

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Carmen M. Reinhart

    (International Monetary Fund)

The characteristics of recent capital inflows into Latin America are discussed. It is argued that these inflows are partly explained by conditions outside the region, like the recession in the United States and lower international interest rates. The importance of external factors suggests that a reversal of those conditions may lead to a future capital outflow, increasing the macroeconomic vulnerability of Latin American economies. Policy options, it is argued, are limited.

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Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund.

Volume (Year): 40 (1993)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 108-151

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:40:y:1993:i:1:p:108-151
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  1. Alexander K. Swoboda & Jacob A. Frenkel & Jacques R. Artus, 1983. "Exchange Rate Regimes and European-U.S. Policy Interdependence [with Comments] (Régimes de taux de change et interdépendance des politiques économiques en Europe et aux Etats-Unis) (Régimen cambia," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 30(1), pages 75-112, March.
  2. Mohamed A. El-Erian, 1992. "Restoration of Access to Voluntary Capital Market Financing: The Recent Latin American Experience," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 175-194, March.
  3. Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1991. "Exchange rate stabilization under imperfect credibility," MPRA Paper 20486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Symposium on Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 13-18, Spring.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Carlos F. Diaz-Alejandro, 1984. "Latin American Debt: I Don't Think We Are in Kansas Anymore," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 335-403.
  7. Liliana Rojas-Suárez & Donald J. Mathieson, 1993. "Liberalization of the Capital Account; Experiences and Issues," IMF Occasional Papers 103, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
  9. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
  10. D. F. I. Folkerts-Landau & Donald J. Mathieson & Morris Goldstein & Liliana Rojas-Suárez & José Saúl Lizondo & Timothy D. Lane, 1991. "Determinants and Systemic Consequences of International Capital Flows," IMF Occasional Papers 77, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1983. "Trying to Stabilize: Some Theoretical Reflections Based on the Case of Argentina," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Policies and the World Capital Market: The Problem of Latin American Countries, pages 199-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-64, December.
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