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The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policies in Argentina

  • Eugenio Diaz Bonilla
  • Hector E. Schamis

This paper identifies three periods in Argentine exchange rate policy, corresponding with different development strategies and political coalitions. The first, periodic adjustments to a pegged rate until the mid-1970s, accompanied an Import Substitution Industrialization approach and a redistribution of income from agrarian to industrial production during an era of strong labor union influence. A second period, from the mid-1970s, marked by accelerated devaluations, represented efforts by both military and civilian governments to meet the demands of their respective constituencies while maintaining capital flows from abroad; these efforts culminated in hyperinflation. A third period, beginning in the early 1990s, was notable for exchange rate stability, based on the Convertibility Plan, as a broad consensus emerged that the exchange rate should be used for containing inflation rather than engaging in redistribution among domestic interest groups. The authors conclude that additional innovations in Argentina`s monetary and exchange rate policies may eventually be necessary.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 3078.

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Date of creation: Apr 1999
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:3078
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  1. Leonardo Leiderman & Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Entradas de capitales a países en desarrollo en los años 90: causas y efectos," Research Department Publications 4003, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
  4. Robert Brandon Kahn & Adam Bennett & María Vicenta Carkovic S. & Susan Schadler, 1993. "Recent Experiences with Surges in Capital Inflows," IMF Occasional Papers 108, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Carlos A. Végh, 1996. "Disinflation and The Recession-Now-versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(2), pages 355-394, June.
  6. Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1995. "Money-Based versus Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization with Endogenous Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 5300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Rodrik, Dani, 1993. "The Positive Economics of Policy Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 356-61, May.
  8. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1986. "Fractured Liberalism: Argentina under Martinez de Hoz," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(3), pages 511-33, April.
  9. Cavallo, Domingo & Mundlak, Yair, 1982. "Agriculture and economic growth in an open economy: the case of Argentina," Research reports 36, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  10. Robert Flood & Nancy Marion, 1994. "The Size and Timing of Devaluations in Capital-Controlled Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 4957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1994. "Capital inflows to Latin America," MPRA Paper 13406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Laban, Raul & Sturzenegger, Federico, 1994. "Fiscal conservatism as a response to the debt crisis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 305-324, December.
  13. P. Krugman & L. Taylor, 1976. "Contractionary Effects of Devaluations," Working papers 191, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  14. Corden, W. Max, 1990. "Exchange rate policy in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 412, The World Bank.
  15. Teitel, Simon & Colman Sercovich, Francisco, 1984. "Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 12(5-6), pages 645-660.
  16. Haggard, Stephan & Kaufman, Robert, 1990. "The political economy of inflation and stabilization in middle-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 444, The World Bank.
  17. Ray C. Fair, 1996. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 89-102, Summer.
  18. Mundlak, Yair & Cavallo, Domingo & Domenech, Roberto, 1989. "Agriculture and economic growth in Argentina, 1913-84:," Research reports 76, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  19. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Carlos A. Rodriguez, 1992. "Money and Credit Under Currency Substitution," IMF Working Papers 92/99, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1991. "Exchange rate stabilization under imperfect credibility," MPRA Paper 20486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D & Robinson, Sherman, 1993. "External Shocks, Purchasing Power Parity, and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(1), pages 45-63, January.
  23. Raul Labán & Federico Sturzenegger, 1994. "Distributional Conflict, Financial Adaptation And Delayed Stabilizations," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 257-276, November.
  24. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 1349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Michael W. Klein & Nancy P. Marion, 1994. "Explaining the Duration of Exchange-Rate Pegs," NBER Working Papers 4651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Engle, Robert F, 1983. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 286-301, August.
  27. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s: Causes and Effects," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 5718, Inter-American Development Bank.
  28. Carlos F. Diaz Alejandro, 1963. "A Note on the Impact of Devaluation and the Redistributive Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 577.
  29. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1982. "The Argentine stabilization plan of December 20th," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 801-811, September.
  30. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:102:y:1987:i:4:p:835-55 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Carlos Alfredo Rodríguez, 1993. "Money and Credit Under Currency Substitution," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 414-426, June.
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