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Exchange rate stabilization under imperfect credibility

Author

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  • Calvo, Guillermo
  • Vegh, Carlos

Abstract

This paper analyzes stabilization policy under predetermined exchange rates in a cash-in-advance, staggered-prices model. Under full credibility, a reduction in the rate of devaluation results in an immediate and permanent reduction in the inflation rate, with no effect on output or consumption. In contrast, a non-credible stabilization results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The inflation rate of home goods remains above the rate of devaluation throughout the program, thus resulting in a sustained real exchange rate appreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1991. "Exchange rate stabilization under imperfect credibility," MPRA Paper 20486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20486
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-113, May.
    2. Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1991. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Working Papers 1991/107, International Monetary Fund.
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    9. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1982. "The Argentine stabilization plan of December 20th," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 801-811, September.
    10. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    11. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Rocha, Roberto de Rezende, 1991. "Stabilization programs in Eastern Europe : a comparative analysis of the Polish and Yugoslav programs of 1990," Policy Research Working Paper Series 732, The World Bank.
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    14. Mr. Guillermo Calvo & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1990. "Credibility and the Dynamics of Stabilization Policy: A Basic Framework," IMF Working Papers 1990/110, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Ken Miyajima, 2005. "Real Exchange Rates in Growing Economies: How Strong Is the Role of the Nontradables Sector?," IMF Working Papers 2005/233, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Eugenio Diaz Bonilla & Hector E. Schamis, 1999. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policies in Argentina," Research Department Publications 3078, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    4. Enrique Alberola & Luis Molina, 2003. "What Does Really Discipline Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets?: the Role and Dynamics of Exchange Rate Regimes," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 165-192, July-Dece.
    5. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1994. "Stabilization dynamics and backward-looking contracts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 59-84, February.
    6. Eugenio Diaz Bonilla & Hector E. Schamis, 1999. "La economía política de las políticas de cambio en Argentina," Research Department Publications 3079, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    7. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gerardo Licandro & José Antonio Licandro, 2001. "Anatomía y patología de la dolarización," Documentos de trabajo 2001003, Banco Central del Uruguay, revised Dec 2001.
    9. Mr. Guillermo Calvo & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1992. "Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction," IMF Working Papers 1992/040, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Carlos Humberto Cardona & Adriana Pontón & Eduardo Sarmiento, 1998. "Evidencia Sobre Las Desinflaciones: Experiencia Internacional," Borradores de Economia 2650, Banco de la Republica.
    11. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Montiel, Peter J., 1995. "The surge in capital inflows to developing countries : prospects and policy response," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1473, The World Bank.
    12. Álvaro Rojas O. & Felipe Jaque S., 2003. "Determinants of the Chilean Sovereign Spread: is it Purely Fundamentals?," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 137-163, July-Dece.
    13. Tamara Burdisso & Verónica Cohen Sabban & Laura D'Amato, 2003. "The Argentine Banking and Exchange Crisis of 2001: Can we Learn Something New About Financial Crisis?," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 89-136, July-Dece.
    14. Gerardo Licandro & José Antonio Licandro, 2003. "Building the Dedollarization Agenda: Lessons from the Uruguayan Case," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 193-218, July-Dece.
    15. Fridman Alla & Verbetsky Aleksey, 2001. "Currency Substitution in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 01-05e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    16. Bossone, Biagio, 2019. "The portfolio theory of inflation and policy (in)effectiveness," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-25.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; exchange rate policy; inflation stabilization; credibility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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