What Does Really Discipline Fiscal Policy In Emerging Markets? The Role And Dynamics Of Exchange Rate Regimes
Fixing the exchange rate stabilises inflation and reduces monetary seignoriage, a key source of financing under the fiscal dominance hypothesis. However, the link between fixed exchange rate regimes and fiscal discipline in emerging markets has been found to be weak. This paper thoroughly reviews the issue through three venues. First, an alternative measure to gauge fiscal discipline –the so called shadow balance, inclusive of seignoriage revenues is proposed, since the traditional one, the primary balance, does not convey monetary financing; notwithstanding this modification, no robust relation is found either. Second, we sustain and then prove the hypothesis that fixing the exchange rate may have offsetting effects on fiscal discipline through the relaxation of the fiscal constraint of the government. In particular fixing the exchange rate is expected to reduce the cost and burden of debt and to enhance the ability to obtain revenues through a higher level of activity. The empirical test of this hypothesis follows a two-stage approach. First, we test the impact of the fiscal constraints on discipline: as advocated, a higher fiscal burden induces higher discipline; higher activity does not clearly relax discipline, although expenditures grow and the burden of debt is shown to diminish. The second stage tests the impact of fixed regime on the considered determinants. Again, the relation between fixed regimes and the reduction of the burden is robust, but not so the impact of fixed regimes on the cycle. Third, we explore the dynamics related to the pegging of the exchange rate, uncovering that at its inception exchange rates trigger an expansion and reduce the debt burden. This final outcome does not only strengthen our hypothesis but illustrates how the peg sows the seeds of its own destruction, also at the fiscal level.
|Date of creation:||07 Jul 2005|
|Note:||Type of Document - pdf; pages: 40. Appeared as article in Money Affairs (2003), also published in Banco de España Working paper, DT0402|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marco Terrones & Luis CatÃ£o, 2000. "Determinants of Dollarization; The Banking Side," IMF Working Papers 00/146, .
- Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Disyatat, Piti, 2004.
"Currency crises and the real economy: The role of banks,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 75-90, February.
- Piti Disyatat, 2002. "Currency Crises and the Real Economy: The Role of Banks," Working Papers 2002-08, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
- Piti Disyatat, 2001. "Currency Crises and the Real Economy; The Role of Banks," IMF Working Papers 01/49, .
- Eduardo Moron & Diego Winkelried, 2002.
"Monetary Policy Rules for Financially Vulnerable EconomieEd,"
- Moron, Eduardo & Winkelried, Diego, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for financially vulnerable economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 23-51, February.
- Eduardo MorÃ³n & Diego Winkelried, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules for Financially Vulnerable Economies," IMF Working Papers 03/39, .
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1994.
"Stabilization dynamics and backward-looking contracts,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 59-84, February.
- Carlos A. VÃ©gh Gramont & Guillermo Calvo, 1993. "Stabilization Dynamics and Backward-Looking Contracts," IMF Working Papers 93/29, .
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004.
"The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation,"
14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999.
"Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614 Elsevier.
- William Poole, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216.
- Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
- Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, .
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gerardo Licandro, 2000. "Las reglas de responsabilidad fiscal en el Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2000006, Banco Central del Uruguay.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
- Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1998. "Fiscal discipline and the choice of a nominal anchor in stabilization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 1-30, October.
- Carlos A. VÃ©gh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
- Sebastian Edwards & Guido Tabellini, 1990.
"Explaining Fiscal Policies and Inflation in Developing Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
3493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edwards, Sebastian & Tabellini, Guido, 1991. "Explaining fiscal policies and inflation in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages 16-48, March.
- William Poole, 1969.
"Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model,"
Special Studies Papers
2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- William Poole, 1970. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Staff Studies 57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Alain Ize, 1998. "Dollarization of Financial Intermediation; Causes and Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 98/28, .
- Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
- A. Javier Hamann, 1999.
"Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization; A Critical Look at the Stylized Facts,"
IMF Working Papers
- By A. Javier Hamann, 2001. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: A Critical Look at the Stylized Facts," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-4.
- Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
- Thomas, Lee R, 1985. "Portfolio Theory and Currency Substitution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(3), pages 347-357, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0507003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.