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The Impact of Fixed Exchange Rates on Fiscal Discipline

  • Makram El‐Shagi

In this paper, it is shown that, contrary to standard arguments, fiscal discipline is not substantially enhanced by a fixed exchange rate regime. This study is based on data from 116 countries collected from 1975 to 2004 and uses various estimation techniques for dynamic panel data, in particular a GMM estimation in the tradition of Arellano and Bover (1995), and Blundell and Bond (1998). Contrary to previous papers on this topic, the present paper takes into account that the consequences of a new exchange rate regime do not necessarily fully manifest immediately.

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Article provided by Scottish Economic Society in its journal Scottish Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 58 (2011)
Issue (Month): 5 (November)
Pages: 685-710

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Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:58:y:2011:i:5:p:685-710
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  1. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  2. R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  4. Enrique Alberola & Luis Molina, 2003. "What Does Really Discipline Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets?: the Role and Dynamics of Exchange Rate Regimes," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 165-192, July-Dece.
  5. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2005. "Pegged exchange rate regimes -- a trap?," Working Paper Series 2006-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
  7. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  8. Enrique Alberola & Luis Molina & Daniel Navia, 2005. "Say You Fix, Enjoy And Relax The Deleterious Effect Of Peg Announcements On Fiscal Discipline," International Finance 0509001, EconWPA.
  9. Giovanni S.F. Bruno, 2004. "Approximating the Bias of the LSDV Estimator for Dynamic Unbalanced Panel Data Models," KITeS Working Papers 159, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jul 2004.
  10. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  11. Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 1182, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Barbara Annicchiarico, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rates," CEIS Research Paper 7, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
  14. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  15. Daniel, Betty C., 2000. "The timing of exchange rate collapse," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 765-784, December.
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