Leading Indicators of Currency Crises
This papers examines the empirical literature on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit unusual behaviorin the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning "signal" that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to international reserves, output, and equity prices.
|Date of creation:||1998|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in IMF Staff Papers 1.45(1998): pp. 1-48|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996.
"Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995.
"Contagious speculative attacks,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1984.
"Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
- Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996.
"Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1619, The World Bank.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997.
"Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
- repec:idb:brikps:5721 is not listed on IDEAS
- Pierre-Richard AgÃ©nor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1992. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 357-394, June.
- Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1997. "The size and timing of devaluations in capital-controlled economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 123-147, October.
- Humberto Mora A. & Juan Manuel Julio & Santiago Herrera A., 1991.
"Crisis cambiaria en un sistema con minidevaluaciones : el caso colombiano,"
Ensayos sobre Política Económica,
Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 10(20), pages 7-51, Diciembre.
- Santiago Herrera Aguilera & Humberto Mora Alvarez & Juan Manuel Julio Roman, 1991. "Crisis Cambiaria En Un Sistema Con Minidevaluaciones El Caso Colombiano," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 10(20), pages 7-51, December.
- Pierre-Richard Agenor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1991.
"Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance-of-Payments Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
3919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert P. Flood & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Pierre-Richard AgÃ©nor, 1991. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Working Papers 91/99, International Monetary Fund.
- Garber, P.M. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1994.
"The Operation and Collapse of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes,"
588, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Garber, Peter M. & Svensson, Lars E.O., 1995. "The operation and collapse of fixed exchange rate regimes," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 36, pages 1865-1911 Elsevier.
- Peter M. Garber & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "The Operation and Collapse of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 4971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Inci Ã–tker, 1994. "Exchange Market Pressures and Speculative Capital Flows in Selected European Countries," IMF Working Papers 94/21, International Monetary Fund.
- Dellas, H. & Stockman, A.C., 1988.
"Self-Fullfilling Expectations, Speculative Attacks And Capital Controls,"
RCER Working Papers
138, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Dellas, Harris & Stockman, Alan, 1993. "Self-Fulfilling Expectations, Speculative Attack, and Capital Controls," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 721-30, November.
- repec:idb:wpaper:4008 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ozkan, F Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 510-19, March.
- Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993.
"Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-75, January.
- Edin, P.A. & Vredin, A., 1991. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Papers 1991g, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- Kamin, S.B., 1988. "Devaluation, External Balance, And Macroeconomic Performance: A Look At The Numbers," Princeton Studies in International Economics 62, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
- Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
- Blackburn, Keith & Sola, Martin, 1993. " Speculative Currency Attacks and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 119-44, June.
- Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 219-294.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6981. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.