What Does Really Discipline Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets?: the Role and Dynamics of Exchange Rate Regimes
Fixing the exchange rate stabilises inflation and reduces monetary seignoriage, a key source of financing under the fiscal dominance hypothesis. However, the link between fixed exchange rate regimes and fiscal discipline in emerging markets has been found to be weak. This paper thoroughly reviews the issue through three venues. First, an alternative measure to gauge fiscal discipline –the so called shadow balance, inclusive of seignoriage revenues– is proposed, since the traditional one, the primary balance, does not convey monetary financing; notwithstanding this modification, no robust relation is found either. Second, we sustain and then prove the hypothesis that fixing the exchange rate may have offsetting effects on fiscal discipline through the relaxation of the fiscal constraint of the government. In particular fixing the exchange rate is expected to reduce the cost and burden of debt and to enhance the ability to obtain revenues through a higher level of activity. The empirical test of this hypothesis follows a two stage approach. First, we test the impact of the fiscal constraints on discipline: as advocated, a higher fiscal burden induces higher discipline; higher activity does not clearly relax discipline, although expenditures grow and the burden of debt is shown to diminish. The second stage tests the impact of fixed regime on the considered determinants. Again, the relation between fixed regimes and the reduction of the burden is robust, but not so the impact of fixed regimes on the cycle. Third, we explore the dynamics related to the pegging of the exchange rate, uncovering that at its inception exchange rates trigger an expansion and reduce the debt burden. This final outcome does not only strengthen our hypothesis but illustrates how the peg sows the seeds of its own destruction, also at the fiscal level.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Volume (Year): XVI (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (July-December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 52 (55) 5061 6680
Web page: http://www.cemla.org
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.cemla.org Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- William Poole, 1969.
"Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model,"
Special Studies Papers
2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Poole, William, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216, May.
- William Poole, 1970. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Staff Studies 57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1998. "Fiscal discipline and the choice of a nominal anchor in stabilization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 1-30, October.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997.
"Leading indicators of currency crises,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1852, The World Bank.
- Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
- By A. Javier Hamann, 2001.
"Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: A Critical Look at the Stylized Facts,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 4.
- A. Javier Hamann, 1999. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization; Acritical Look At the Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/132, International Monetary Fund.
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Alain Ize, 1998. "Dollarization of Financial Intermediation; Causes and Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 98/28, International Monetary Fund.
- Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
- Moron, Eduardo & Winkelried, Diego, 2005.
"Monetary policy rules for financially vulnerable economies,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 23-51, February.
- Eduardo Moron & Diego Winkelried, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules for Financially Vulnerable EconomieEd," Macroeconomics 0205001, EconWPA.
- Eduardo MorÃ³n & Diego Winkelried, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules for Financially Vulnerable Economies," IMF Working Papers 03/39, International Monetary Fund.
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999.
"Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Piti Disyatat, 2001.
"Currency Crises and the Real Economy; The Role of Banks,"
IMF Working Papers
01/49, International Monetary Fund.
- Disyatat, Piti, 2004. "Currency crises and the real economy: The role of banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 75-90, February.
- Piti Disyatat, 2002. "Currency Crises and the Real Economy: The Role of Banks," Working Papers 2002-08, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
- Edwards, Sebastian & Tabellini, Guido, 1991.
"Explaining fiscal policies and inflation in developing countries,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages S16-S48, March.
- Sebastian Edwards & Guido Tabellini, 1990. "Explaining Fiscal Policies and Inflation in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 3493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1994.
"Stabilization dynamics and backward-looking contracts,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 59-84, February.
- Carlos A. VÃ©gh Gramont & Guillermo Calvo, 1993. "Stabilization Dynamics and Backward-Looking Contracts," IMF Working Papers 93/29, International Monetary Fund.
- Gerardo Licandro, 2000. "Las reglas de responsabilidad fiscal en el Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2000006, Banco Central del Uruguay.
- Carlos A. VÃ©gh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
- Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002.
"The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation,"
NBER Working Papers
8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marco Terrones & Luis CatÃ£o, 2000. "Determinants of Dollarization; The Banking Side," IMF Working Papers 00/146, International Monetary Fund.
- Thomas, Lee R, 1985. "Portfolio Theory and Currency Substitution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(3), pages 347-57, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cml:moneya:v:xvi:y:2003:i:2:p:165-192. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ana Laura Sibaja-Jiménez)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.