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Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries

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  • Christian Broda

Abstract

Since Friedman (1953), an advantage often attributed to flexible exchange rate regimes over fixed regimes is their ability to insulate more effectively the economy against real shocks. I use a post-Bretton Woods sample (1973-96) of seventy-five developing countries to assess whether the responses of real GDP, real exchange rates, and prices to terms-of-trade shocks differ systematically across exchange rate regimes. I find that responses are significantly different across regimes in a way that supports Friedman's hypothesis. In response to a negative terms-of-trade shock, countries with fixed regimes experience large and significant declines in real GDP, and the real exchange rate depreciates slowly and by means of a fall in prices. Countries with more flexible regimes, by contrast, tend to have small real GDP losses and immediate large real depreciations. The contributions of terms-of-trade disturbances to the actual fluctuation of real GDP, real exchange rates, and prices are also examined.

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  • Christian Broda, 2002. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Staff Reports 148, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:148
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bailliu, Jeannine & Lafrance, Robert & Perrault, Jean-Francois, 2003. "Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 381-414, Winter.
    2. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2007. "Fluctuations de Change et Performances Economiques," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 50(4), pages 427-444.
    3. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2015. "Macro Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in a Small Open Small Island Economy: Evidence from Mauritius via BMA," MPRA Paper 68968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mario Cimoli & Sebastian Fleitas & Gabriel Porcile, 2013. "Technological intensity of the export structure and the real exchange rate," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 353-372, June.
    5. Quader, Syed Manzur, 2004. "Floating Exchange Rate Regime," MPRA Paper 26163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Dungey, Mardi, 2004. "Identifying terms of trade effects in real exchange rate movements: evidence from Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 217-235, April.

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    Keywords

    Foreign exchange rates ; Foreign exchange;

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