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Sources of Fluctuations in Relative Prices: Evidence from High Inflation Countries

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  • Rogers, J.H.
  • Wang, P.

Abstract

Casual analysis of six high-inflation episodes indicates a strong positive relationship between movements in the relative price ratio, measured by (WPI/CPI), and the inflation rate. The authors estimate a vector autoregression model in which relative price movements are driven by several fundamental disturbances (fiscal, monetary, output, and exchange rate), identified using only long-run restrictions based on a general-equilibrium optimizing model. Analysis of the endogenous response of relative price changes to these disturbances suggests that output and monetary shocks are the most important driving forces, although fiscal and exchange rate shocks are also influential in explaining relative price movements in some countries. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.
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Suggested Citation

  • Rogers, J.H. & Wang, P., 1990. "Sources of Fluctuations in Relative Prices: Evidence from High Inflation Countries," Papers 12-90-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:pensta:12-90-2
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    1. repec:sbe:breart:v:20:y:2000:i:2:a:2759 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. John H. Rogers, 1995. "Real shocks and real exchange rates in really long-term data," International Finance Discussion Papers 493, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Ostermark, Ralf, 2001. "Multivariate cointegration analysis of the Finnish-Japanese stock markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 498-507, November.
    4. Dzanan, Haris & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Does currency depreciation necessarily result in positive trade balance ? new evidence from Norway," MPRA Paper 82103, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ping Wang & Danyang Xie, 2013. "Real Effects of Money Growth and Optimal Rate of Inflation in a Cash‐in‐Advance Economy with Labor‐Market Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(8), pages 1517-1546, December.
    6. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-353, July.
    7. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "Dynamic linkages and the propagation mechanism driving major international stock markets: An analysis of the pre- and post-crash eras," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 859-885.
    8. Derek Laing & Victor E. Li & Ping Wang, 2000. "Inflation, trade frictions, and productive activity in a multiple-matching model of money," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    9. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Empirical tests to discern the dynamic causal chain in macroeconomic activity: new evidence from Thailand and Malaysia based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correction modeling approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 531-560, October.
    10. Masih, A. Mansur M. & Masih, Rumi, 2002. "Propagative causal price transmission among international stock markets: evidence from the pre- and postglobalization period," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 63-91.
    11. Jr., Luiz R. de Mello & Carneiro, Francisco G., 2000. "Consumption Behaviour and Persistently High Inflation: Evidence from Latin America," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 54(2), April.
    12. Ellis W. Tallman & De-Piao Tang & Ping Wang, 2003. "Nominal and Real Disturbances and Money Demand in Chinese Hyperinflation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(2), pages 234-249, April.
    13. Jha, Sailesh K. & Wang, Ping & Yip, Chong K., 2002. "Dynamics in a transactions-based monetary growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 611-635, April.
    14. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Macroeconomic activity dynamics and Granger causality: New evidence from a small developing economy based on a vector error-correction modelling analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-426, July.
    15. Ellis W. Tallman & De-piao Tang & Ping Wang, 2001. "Anticipated Inflation, Real Disturbances and Money Demand: The Case of Chinese Hyperinflation, 1946-49," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0134, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Dec 2001.
    16. Derek Laing & Victor E. Li & Ping Wang, 1998. "Inflation and economic activity in a multiple matching model of money," Working Papers 1998-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    17. Christian Broda, 2002. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Staff Reports 148, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Abul M. M. Masih & Rumi Masih, 1997. "Bivariate and Multivariate Tests of Money-Price Causality: Robust Evidence from a Small Developing Country," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(6), pages 803-825.
    19. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May.

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    Keywords

    inflation ; consumption ; prices;

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