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When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?

  • Jon Faust
  • Eric M. Leeper

Many recent articles have identified behavioral disturbances in vector autoregressions by imposing restrictions on the long-run effects of shocks. This article demonstrates that this approach will be unreliable unless the underlying economy satisfies three types of strong restrictions. Although many aspects of these issues have been raised before, this article draws out and illustrates the implications for inferences under the long-run scheme. Furthermore, it provides strategies for dealing with the problems.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. with number 94-2.

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Date of creation: 1994
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:94-2
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  1. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Novales, Alfonso, 1990. "Solving Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models: A Stochastic Equilibrium Model of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 93-111, January.
  3. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Macroeconomic Adjustment Under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton Woods Float: An Impulse-Response Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lastrapes, William D. & Selgin, George, 1995. "The liquidity effect: Identifying short-run interest rate dynamics using long-run restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 387-404.
  5. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Ahmed, S. & Ickes, B. & Wang, P. & Yoo, S., 1989. "International Business Cycles," Papers 7-89-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  7. Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 0430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of Monetary Unification," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt791143kp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  9. Rogers, J.H. & Wang, P., 1990. "Sources of Fluctuations in Relative Prices: Evidence from High Inflation Countries," Papers 12-90-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  10. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-52, June.
  11. Hendry, David F., 1992. "An econometric analysis of TV advertising expenditure in the United Kingdom," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 281-311, June.
  12. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
  13. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-63, September.
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