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Decomposing U.S. Nominal Interest Rates into Expected Inflation and Ex Ante Real Interest Rates Using Structural VAR Methodology

  • Pierre St-Amant

In this paper, the author uses structural vector autoregression methodology to decompose U.S. nominal interest rates into an expected inflation component and an ex ante real interest rate component. He identifies inflation expectations and ex ante real interest rate shocks by assuming that nominal interest rates and inflation expectations move one-for-one in the long-run - they are cointegrated (1,1) - and that the real interest rate is stationary. He finds that changes in inflation expectations and in the ex ante real interest rate are both important in explaining fluctuations in the U.S. 1-year and 10-year government bond rates. The author also finds that, while the increase in the 1-year and the 10-year bond rates in the 1970s and the early 1980s mainly reflects higher inflation expectations, changes in ex ante real interest rates appear to account for most of the fluctuations in these rates in 1994 and in the first half of 1995.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/mac/papers/9602/9602004.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 9602004.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 23 Feb 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9602004
Note: 19 printed pages, compressed PostScript file. Other recent Bank of Canada working papers are listed on the last page of this report.
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1989. "Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 933, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Pierre St-Amant, 1996. "Decomposing U.S. Nominal Interest Rates into Expected Inflation and Ex Ante Real Interest Rates Using Structural VAR Methodology," Macroeconomics 9602004, EconWPA.
  3. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-44, September.
  5. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 870, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  7. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  8. Evans, George W. & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "Information, Forecasts and Measurement of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. G. William Schwert, 1988. "Tests For Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Frederic S. Mishkin & John Simon, 1994. "An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Effect in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9410, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  11. Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1993. "The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances: comment," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10159, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  12. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 1996. "The Empirical Performance of Alternative Monetary and Liquidity Aggregates," Macroeconomics 9601001, EconWPA.
  13. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris & Joon Y. Park, 1988. "Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Maintained Trend," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 880, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Christopher Ragan, . "Deriving Agents' Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 95-1, Bank of Canada.
  16. Gamber, Edward N & Joutz, Frederick L, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1387-93, December.
  17. Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Vector autoregressions and cointegration," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 93-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  18. Alain DeSerres, & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, . "Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology: The Case of the Mexican Economy," Working Papers 95-2, Bank of Canada.
  19. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1995. "Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology," Macroeconomics 9504003, EconWPA.
  20. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
  21. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay, 1995. "Selection of the Truncation Lag in Structural VARs (or VECMs) with Long-Run Restrictions," Econometrics 9510001, EconWPA.
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