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Deriving Agents' Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates

In this paper, the author uses the term structure of nominal interest rates to construct estimates of agents' expectations of inflation over several medium-term forecast horizons. The Expectations Hypothesis is imposed together with the assumption that expected future real interest rates are given by current real rates. Under these maintained assumptions, it is possible to compare the nominal yields on two assets of different maturities and attribute the difference in nominal yields to differences in expected inflation over the two horizons (assuming a constant term premium). The results for the United States and Canada over the past several years suggest that there is a significant static element to agents' inflation expectations.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 9502003.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 03 Feb 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9502003
Note: 32 printed pages, compressed PostScript file. If you have trouble viewing the complete document, please print it out on a PostScript printer. Other recent Bank of Canada working papers are listed on the last page of this report. Bank of Canada
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  1. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "An indicator of future inflation extracted from the steepness of the interest rate yield curve along its entire length," Research Paper 9122, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Robert J. Barro, 1976. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," Working Papers 234, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  4. Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, . "The Dynamic Behaviour of Canadian Imports and the Linear-Quadratic Model: Evidence Based on the Euler Equation," Working Papers 94-6, Bank of Canada.
  5. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1985. "Inflation and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 530-38, June.
  6. Mishkin, F.S., 1988. "The Information In The Term Structure: Some Further Results," Papers fb-_88-26, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  7. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June.
  8. Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, . "An Empirical Investigation into Government Spending and Private Sector Behaviour," Working Papers 94-8, Bank of Canada.
  9. Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate," International Finance 9502001, EconWPA.
  10. Pesando, James E, 1978. "On the Efficiency of the Bond Market: Some Canadian Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1057-76, December.
  11. Hamilton, James D, 1985. "Uncovering Financial Market Expectations of Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(6), pages 1224-41, December.
  12. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1982. "A Technique for Extracting a Measure of Expected Inflation from the Interest Rate Term Structure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 135-42, February.
  13. Stephen R. Blough, 1994. "Yield curve forecasts of inflation: a cautionary tale," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 3-16.
  14. Fama, Eugene F., 1990. "Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-76, January.
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