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A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting

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Abstract

This survey covers the major methods used to forecast interest rates. The theoretical underpinings are presented and discussed in the perspective of forecast accuracy using results published in the literature. A basic review of interest rate modeling is also provided. Ce survol couvre les principales méthodes utilisées pour prévoir des raux d'intérêt. Les bases théoriques sont présentées et discutées sous l'angle de l'exactitude des prévisions en utilisant les résultats publiés dans la littérature. Une revue élémentaire de la modélisation des taux d'intérêt est également offerte.

Suggested Citation

  • Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  • Handle: RePEc:cre:crefwp:87
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank A. G. den Butter & Pieter W. Jansen, 2013. "Beating the random walk: a performance assessment of long-term interest rate forecasts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(9), pages 749-765, May.
    2. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2004. "Interest Rate Modeling and Forecasting in India," Occasional papers 3, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    3. Baghestani, Hamid, 2009. "Survey evidence on forecast accuracy of U.S. term spreads," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 156-162, August.
    4. van Ommeren, Bernard J.F. & Allers, Maarten A. & Vellekoop, Michel H., 2017. "Choosing the optimal moment to arrange a loan," Research Report 17007-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    5. Baghestani, Hamid, 2009. "Forecasting in efficient bond markets: Do experts know better?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 624-630, October.
    6. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee, 2006. "Investing Under Model Uncertainty: Decision Based Evaluation of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Forecasts in the US, UK and Japan," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0616, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; forecasting; survey; time series.;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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