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Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models

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  • Campbell, John Y
  • Shiller, Robert J

Abstract

Application of some advances in econometrics (in the theory of cointegrated vector autoregressive models) enables us to deal effectively with two problems in rational-expectations, present-valu e models: nonstationarity of time series and incomplete data on infor mation of market participants. With U.S. data, the authors find some relatively encouraging new results for the rational-expectations theo ry of the term structure and some puzzling results for the present-va lue model of stock prices. Copyright 1987 by University of Chicago Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:95:y:1987:i:5:p:1062-88
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    References listed on IDEAS

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