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Conventional Valuation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

  • Robert J. Shiller

There does not appear to be a general tendency for long-term interest rates either to overreact or to underreact to short-term interest rates relative to a rational expectations model of the term structure. Rather, there appears to be some tendency for markets to set long-term interest rates in terms of a convention or rule of thumb that makes long rates behave as a distributed lag, with gradually declining coefficients, of short-term interest rates. People seem to remember the recent past but blur the mare distant. In some monetary policy regimes this convention implies overreaction, in others underreaction.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1610.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1610.

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Date of creation: Apr 1985
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Publication status: published as Rudiger Dornbusch et. al. eds., Macroeconomics and Finance: Essays in Honor of Franco Modigliani, Cambridge, MIT Press, 1987
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1610
Note: ME
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  1. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1981. "A Re-examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 769-99, September.
  2. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
  3. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
  5. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1983. "A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Pierre Perron & Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 732, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Matthew D. Shapiro & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1984. "Trends, Random Walks, and Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 725, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Marjorie A. Flavin, 1984. "Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Current Income: Liquidity Constraints or Myopia?," NBER Working Papers 1341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Alternative Tests of Rational Expectations Models: The Case of the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 0563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Hayashi, Fumio & Sims, Christopher A, 1983. "Nearly Efficient Estimation of Time Series Models with Predetermined, but Not Exogenous, Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 783-98, May.
  11. Franco Modigliani & Richard Sutch, 1967. "Debt Management and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: An Empirical Analysis of Recent Experience," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 569.
  12. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "Exact linear rational expectations models: specification and estimation," Staff Report 71, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  13. N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Do Long-Term Interest Rates Overreact to Short-Term Interest Rates?," NBER Working Papers 1345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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