IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecorec/v64y1988i2p120-127.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Expectations Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Australia

Author

Listed:
  • WARREN J. TEASE

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to test the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates in the Australian market for short‐term financial assets. The paper finds that the joint hypothesis of the expectations theory and zero (or a constant risk premium) cannot be rejected in the period since the introduction of the tender system for sale of government securities in 1979. The floating of the Australian dollar in 1983 did not alter the findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Warren J. Tease, 1988. "The Expectations Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(2), pages 120-127, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:64:y:1988:i:2:p:120-127
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1988.tb02047.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.1988.tb02047.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1475-4932.1988.tb02047.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1983. "Excess Volatility in the Financial Markets: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(6), pages 929-956, December.
    2. Shiller, Robert J., 1981. "Alternative tests of rational expectations models : The case of the term structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 71-87, May.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Do Long-Term Interest Rates Overreact to Short-Term Interest Rates?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(1), pages 223-248.
    5. Campbell, John Y, 1986. "A Defense of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 183-193, March.
    6. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
    7. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December.
    8. Philip W. Lowe & Robert G. Trevor, 1987. "The Performance of Exchange Rate Forecasts," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 20(4), pages 31-44, December.
    9. F. A. Bloch, 1974. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in Australia: A Test Using the Error‐learning Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 50(1), pages 77-93, March.
    10. repec:bla:ecorec:v:51:y:1975:i:133:p:19-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Sargent, Thomas J., 1979. "A note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 133-143, January.
    12. repec:bla:ecorec:v:0:y:1986:i:0:p:58-66 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1982. "Expectations Models of Asset Prices: A Survey of Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 185-217, March.
    14. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1981. "A Re-examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 769-799, September.
    15. repec:bla:ecorec:v:64:y:1988:i:184:p:2-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. D. J. Jüttner & G. M. Madden & R. H. Tuckwell, 1975. "Time Series Analysis of the Term Structure of Australian Interest Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 51(1), pages 19-30, March.
    17. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.
    18. repec:bla:ecorec:v:50:y:1974:i:129:p:77-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
    20. Singleton, Kenneth J, 1980. "Expectations Models of the Term Structure and Implied Variance Bounds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1159-1176, December.
    21. Tenny N. Lam & R. F. F. Dawson, 1972. "Books of Interest," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(2), pages 214-216, May.
    22. Friedman, Benjamin M, 1979. "Interest Rate Expectations versus Forward Rates: Evidence from an Expectations Survey," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(4), pages 965-973, September.
    23. Jones, David S. & Vance Roley, V., 1983. "Rational expectations and the expectations model of the term structure : A test using weekly data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 453-465, September.
    24. Flavin, Marjorie, 1984. "Time series evidence on the expectations hypothesis of the term structure," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 211-237, January.
    25. Warren J. Tease, 1988. "Speculative Efficiency and the Exchange Rate: Some Evidence Since the Float," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(1), pages 2-13, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Colm Kearney & Ronald Macdonald & John Hillier, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Bank Accepted Bills," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 65(3), pages 225-233, September.
    2. Lakshman Alles & Ramaprasad Bhar, 1997. "The information on inflation in the Australian term structure," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(6), pages 721-730.
    3. Arusha Cooray, 2003. "A test of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates for Sri Lanka," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(17), pages 1819-1827.
    4. Archawa Paweenawat, 2017. "The Information Content of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Emerging Economies: The Case of Thailand," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 16(2), pages 136-150, August.
    5. Pham, Toan M., 1998. "Estimation of the term structure of interest rates: an international perspective," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(2-3), pages 265-283, September.
    6. A. DAVID McDONALD & JON D. KENDALL & TIM LA. RIDLEY, 1993. "GARCH‐M Estimates of Variable Risk Premia for 180‐day Australian Bank Bills," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(1), pages 10-19, March.
    7. Ross Guest & Alan McLean, 1998. "New evidence on the expectations theory of the term structure of Australian Commonwealth Government Treasury yields," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 81-87.
    8. A. Mansur & M. Masih & Vicky Ryan, 2005. "The term structure of interest rates in Australia: an application of long run structural modelling," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 557-573.
    9. Richard Heaney, 1995. "A Test of the Cost of Carry Relationship using 90†Day Bank Accepted Bills and the All Ordinaries Share Price Index," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 20(1), pages 75-104, June.
    10. Christopher M. Bilson & Timothy J. Brailsford & Luke J. Sullivan & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2008. "Pricing Bonds in the Australian Market," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 33(1), pages 123-143, June.
    11. Sandy Suardi, 2010. "Nonstationarity, cointegration and structural breaks in the Australian term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(22), pages 2865-2879.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:adr:anecst:y:1998:i:52:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Magdalena Massot Perelló & Juan M. Nave Pineda, 2003. "La hipótesis de las expectativas en el largo plazo: evidencia en el mercado español de deuda pública," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(3), pages 533-564, September.
    3. Éric Jondeau & Roland Ricart, 1998. "La théorie des anticipations de la structure par terme : test à partir de titres publics français," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 52, pages 1-22.
    4. M. Isabel Martínez-Serna & Eliseo Navarro-Arribas, 2002. "El modelo de McCallum. Evidencia empírica en la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(2), pages 323-357, May.
    5. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-380, August.
    6. Gilbert Colletaz, 1987. "Les taux d'intérêt observés sur le marché monétaire sont-ils trop volatils ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 38(4), pages 837-852.
    7. Byeongseon Seo, 2000. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 121, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. Wahab, Mahmoud, 1997. "On risk, rationality and the predictive ability of European short-term adjusted yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 737-765, September.
    9. Seo, Byeongseon, 2003. "Nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2243-2265.
    10. Seo, Byeongseon, 2003. "Nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2243-2265, September.
    11. Ederington, Louis H. & Huang, Chao-Hsi, 1995. "Parameter uncertainty and the rational expectations model of the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-223, May.
    12. David S. Jones & V. Vance Roley, 1982. "Rational Expectations, the Expectations Hypothesis, and Treasury Bill Yields: An Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Kenneth A. Froot, 1987. "New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, "undated". "Moving Endpoints in Macrofinance," Computing in Economics and Finance 1996 _058, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2011. "Revisiting the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1202-1212, May.
    16. Mayfield, E. Scott & Murphy, Robert G., 1996. "Explaining the term structure of interest rates: A panel data approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 11-21, February.
    17. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
    18. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P A, 1998. "Moving Endpoints and the Internal Consistency of Agents' Ex Ante Forecasts," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 11(1-2), pages 21-40, April.
    19. Shiller, Robert J. & Huston McCulloch, J., 1990. "The term structure of interest rates," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 627-722, Elsevier.
    20. Shea, Gary S, 1992. "Benchmarking the Expectations Hypothesis of the Interest-Rate Term Structure: An Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 347-366, July.
    21. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:64:y:1988:i:2:p:120-127. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esausea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.