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Benchmarking the Expectations Hypothesis of the Interest-Rate Term Structure: An Analysis of Cointegration Vectors

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  • Shea, Gary S

Abstract

The author tests cointegration restrictions that are consistent with the expectations hypothesis of the term structure by employing the full-information maximum likelihood methods developed by S. Johansen. Yield curves appear to be the result of cointegration among interest rates. The cointegration vectors that best describe the long-term impact of interest-rate levels on interest-rate changes can often be written as linear combinations of interest-rate spreads. There is, however, difficulty in keeping short-term yields in such a restricted cointegrated system with other interest rates. Short-term speculative returns from long-term bonds do not conform to the expectations hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Shea, Gary S, 1992. "Benchmarking the Expectations Hypothesis of the Interest-Rate Term Structure: An Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 347-366, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:10:y:1992:i:3:p:347-66
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