IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/restud/v58y1991i3p515-528..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Myung Jig Kim
  • Charles R. Nelson
  • Richard Startz

Abstract

The paper re-examines the empirical evidence for mean-reverting behaviour in stock prices. Comparison of data before and after World War II shows that mean reversion is entirely a pre-war phenomenon. Using randomization methods to calculate significance levels, we find that the full sample evidence for mean reversion is weaker than previously indicated by Monte Carlo methods under a Normal assumption. Further, the switch to mean-averting behaviour after the war is about to be too strong to be compatible with sampling variation. We interpret these findings as evidence of a fundamental change in the stock returns process and conjecture that it may be due to the resolution of the uncertainties of the 1930's and 1940's.

Suggested Citation

  • Myung Jig Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz, 1991. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 515-528.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:58:y:1991:i:3:p:515-528.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/2298009
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    2. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    3. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    4. Wilson, Jack W & Jones, Charles P, 1987. "A Comparison of Annual Common Stock Returns: 1871-1925 with 1926-85," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(2), pages 239-258, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Myers, Robert J. & Oehmke, James F., 1987. "Instability and Risk as Rationales for Government Intervention in Agriculture," Staff Paper Series 200938, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    2. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    4. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 16972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Christiane Goodfellow & Dirk Schiereck & Steffen Wippler, 2013. "Are behavioural finance equity funds a superior investment? A note on fund performance and market efficiency," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(2), pages 111-119, April.
    6. Thomas Delcey, 2019. "Samuelson vs Fama on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Point of View of Expertise [Samuelson vs Fama sur l’efficience informationnelle des marchés financiers : le point de vue de l’expertise]," Post-Print hal-01618347, HAL.
    7. Ariane Szafarz, 2015. "Market Efficiency and Crises:Don’t Throw the Baby out with the Bathwater," Bankers, Markets & Investors, ESKA Publishing, issue 139, pages 20-26, November-.
    8. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    9. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "New facts in finance," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 23(Q III), pages 36-58.
    10. David Peón & Anxo Calvo, 2012. "Using Behavioral Economics to Analyze Credit Policies in the Banking Industry," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 145-160.
    11. Alexander S. Sangare, 2005. "Efficience des marchés : un siècle après Bachelier," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 81(4), pages 107-132.
    12. Meredith Beechey & David Gruen & James Vickery, 2000. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis: A Survey," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. JULES H. van BINSBERGEN & CHRISTIAN C. OPP, 2019. "Real Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1659-1706, August.
    14. Campbell, John Y., 2001. "Why long horizons? A study of power against persistent alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 459-491, December.
    15. Accominotti, Olivier & Chambers, David, 2016. "If You're So Smart: John Maynard Keynes and Currency Speculation in the Interwar Years," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 342-386, June.
    16. Dragota, Victor & Mitrica, Eugen, 2004. "Emergent capital markets' efficiency: The case of Romania," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 155(2), pages 353-360, June.
    17. Neto, David, 2021. "Are Google searches making the Bitcoin market run amok? A tail event analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    18. Ryan Bartens & Shakill Hassan, 2010. "Value, size and momentum portfolios in real time: the cross section of South African stocks," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 35(2), pages 181-202, August.
    19. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Macro-Finance," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(3), pages 945-985.
    20. S. M. Ahmed & M. I. Ansari, 1997. "Modelling the efficiency of the Canadian foreign exchange market: a bivariate transfer function analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 63-70.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:58:y:1991:i:3:p:515-528.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/restud .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/restud .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.