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Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing

Author

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  • Engle, Robert

    (New York University Stern School of Business)

  • Granger, Clive

Abstract

The relationship between co-integration and error correction models, first suggested in Granger (1981), is here extended and used to develop estimation procedures, tests, and empirical examples. If each element of a vector of time series x, first achieves stationarity after differencing, but a linear combination a’x_t is already stationary, the time series x, are said to be co-integrated with co-integrating vector a. There may be several such co-integrating vectors so that a becomes a matrix. Interpreting a’x_t = 0 as a long run equilibrium, co-integration implies that deviations from equilibrium are stationary, with finite variance, even though the series themselves are nonstationary and have infinite variance. The paper presents a representation theorem based on Granger (1983), which connects the moving average, autoregressive, and error correction representations for co-integrated systems. A vector autoregression in differenced variables is incompatible with these representations. Estimation of these models is discussed and a simple but asymptotically efficient two-step estimator is proposed. Testing for co-integration combines the problems of unit root tests and tests with parameters unidentified under the null. Seven statistics are formulated and analyzed. The critical values of these statistics are calculated based on a Monte Carlo simulation. Using these critical values, the power properties of the tests are examined and one test procedure is recommended for application. In a veries of examples it is found that consumption and income are co-integrated, wages and prices are not, short and long interest rates are, and nominal GNP is co-integrated with M2, but not M1, M3, or aggregate liquid assets. (in Russian)

Suggested Citation

  • Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0274
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Salmon, Mark H, 1982. "Error Correction Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 615-629, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    co-integration; vector autoregression; unit roots; error correction; multivariate time series; Dickey–Fuller tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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