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The power of cointegration tests

  • Jeroen J.M. Kremers
  • Neil R. Ericsson
  • Juan J. Dolado

A cointegration test statistic based upon estimation of an error cor­rection model can be approximately normally distributed when no cointegration is present. By contrast, the equivalent Dickey-Fuller statistic applied to residuals from a static relationship has a non-standard asymptotic distribution. When cointegration exists, the error-correction test generally is more powerful than the Dickey-Fuller test. These differences arise because the latter imposes a possibly invalid common factor restriction. The issue is general and has ramifications for system-based cointegration tests. Monte Carlo analysis and an empirical study of U.K. money demand demonstrate the differences in power.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 431.

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Date of creation: 1992
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:431
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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
  2. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
  3. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  5. Phillips, Peter C B, 1988. "Regression Theory for Near-Integrated Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1021-43, September.
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  7. Neil R. Ericsson & Julia Campos & Hong-Anh Tran, 1991. "PC-give and David Hendry's econometric methodology," International Finance Discussion Papers 406, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson, 1988. "Econometric modeling of consumers' expenditure in Venezuela," International Finance Discussion Papers 325, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-77, August.
  11. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
  12. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  13. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-63, September.
  14. Johansen, S., 1991. "Testing Weak Exogeneity and the Order of Cointegration in UK Money Demand Data," Papers 78, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  15. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  16. Sargan, J D, 1980. "Some Tests of Dynamic Specification for a Single Equation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 879-97, May.
  17. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
  18. Kremers, Jeroen J. M., 1988. "Long-run limits on the US Federal debt," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 259-262.
  19. Kremers, Jeroen J. M., 1989. "U.S. Federal indebtedness and the conduct of fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-238, March.
  20. Nymoen, Ragnar, 1992. "Finnish manufacturing wages 1960-1987: Real-wage flexibility and hysteresis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 429-451, August.
  21. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  22. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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