IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/431.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The power of cointegration tests

Author

Listed:
  • Juan J. Dolado
  • Neil R. Ericsson
  • Jeroen J. M. Kremers

Abstract

A cointegration test statistic based upon estimation of an error correction model can be approximately normally distributed when no cointegration is present. By contrast, the equivalent Dickey-Fuller statistic applied to residuals from a static relationship has a non-standard asymptotic distribution. When cointegration exists, the error-correction test generally is more powerful than the Dickey-Fuller test. These differences arise because the latter imposes a possibly invalid common factor restriction. The issue is general and has ramifications for system-based cointegration tests. Monte Carlo analysis and an empirical study of U.K. money demand demonstrate the differences in power.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan J. Dolado & Neil R. Ericsson & Jeroen J. M. Kremers, 1992. "The power of cointegration tests," International Finance Discussion Papers 431, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:431
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1992/431/default.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1992/431/ifdp431.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kremers, Jeroen J. M., 1988. "Long-run limits on the US Federal debt," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 259-262.
    2. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-174, January.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. P. C. B. Phillips & S. N. Durlauf, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 473-495.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    7. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson, 1988. "Econometric modeling of consumers' expenditure in Venezuela," International Finance Discussion Papers 325, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Phillips, Peter C B, 1988. "Regression Theory for Near-Integrated Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1021-1043, September.
    9. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-277, August.
    10. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    11. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    12. Ericsson, Neil R. & Campos, Julia & Tran, Hong-Anh, 1990. "Pc-Give and David Hendry'S Econometric Methodology," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 10(1), April.
    13. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
    14. Kremers, Jeroen J. M., 1989. "U.S. Federal indebtedness and the conduct of fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-238, March.
    15. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-563, September.
    16. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
    18. Sargan, J D, 1980. "Some Tests of Dynamic Specification for a Single Equation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 879-897, May.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    20. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
    21. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    22. Nymoen, Ragnar, 1992. "Finnish manufacturing wages 1960-1987: Real-wage flexibility and hysteresis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 429-451, August.
    23. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    2. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: An overview," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 251-280, June.
    3. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    5. Sunil Sharma & Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 417-436.
    6. David Hendry, 1995. "On the interactions of unit roots and exogeneity," Economics Papers 7., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    7. Philip Bodman, 1997. "The Australian Trade Balance and Current Account: a Time Series Perspective," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 39-57.
    8. N. Vijayamohanan Pillai, 2010. "Electricity Demand Analysis and Forecasting- The Tradition is Questioned," Working Papers id:2966, eSocialSciences.
    9. Norah Al-Ballaa, 2005. "Test for cointegration based on two-stage least squares," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 707-713.
    10. Neil Karunaratne, 1997. "High-Tech Innovation, Growth and Trade Dynamics in Australia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 151-170, April.
    11. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, enero-jun.
    12. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, May.
    13. Neil R. Ericsson & Steven B. Kamin, 1993. "Dollarization in Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 460, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. David F. Hendry & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2017. "John Denis Sargan at the London School of Economics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2082, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    15. Ram Bhar, 1994. "Yield Curve as a Cointegrated System: Evidence from Australian Treasury Securities," Working Paper Series 35, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    16. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. N. Vijayamohanan Pillai, 2001. "Electricity demand analysis and forecasting: The tradition is questioned," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 312, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
    18. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    19. Abdul Qayyum, 2000. "Demand for Real Money Balances by the Business Sector: An Econometric Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 857-873.
    20. Usman Qamar Sheikh & Muhammad Zafar Iqbal & Hafiz Khalil Ahmad, 2016. "The Impact of Foreign Aid, Energy Production and Human Capital on Income Inequality: A Case Study of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(1), pages 1-9, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometrics;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:431. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.