Assessing the Effectiveness of the Exchange Rate Movements on the Greek Current Account Deficit: A Cointegration Analysis
Using the Johansen Cointegration analysis, Error Correction Modeling (ECM) and Granger Causality on annual data over the 1963 – 2003 period, it is shown that there is a long and short run relationship between the Greek current account deficit and the real effective exchange rate of the Greek currency with the currencies of European Union (EU-15) countries, which are partners of Greece in EU-15. The empirical evidence reveals one – way causality from current account deficit to GDP, RER, GDP11, M3 and BD. The specification and diagnostic tests yield satisfactory results, indicating that the ECM estimates are consistent with the empirical framework.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978.
"Contractionary effects of devaluation,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
- Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Swanson, Norman R., 1997.
"An introduction to stochastic unit-root processes,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 35-62, September.
- Wilson, John F & Takacs, Wendy E, 1979. "Differential Responses to Price and Exchange Rate Influences in the Foreign Trade of Selected Industrial Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(2), pages 267-79, May.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
- Miles, Marc A, 1979. "The Effects of Devaluation on the Trade Balance and the Balance of Payments: Some New Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(3), pages 600-20, June.
- Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-54, November.
- John F. O. Bilson, 1978. "A Dynamic Model of Devaluation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 11(2), pages 194-209, May.
- Hendry, David F, 1988. "The Encompassing Implications of Feedback versus Feedforward Mechanisms in Econometrics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 132-49, March.
- Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Leventakis, John A., 1989. "The effectiveness of devaluation: A general equilibrium assessment with reference to Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-271.
- Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Risager, Ole, 1984. "Does devaluation improve the current account?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 37-64, June.
- Perron, P., 1986.
"Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Further Evidence From a New Approach,"
Cahiers de recherche
8650, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
- Phillips, P C B, 1987.
"Time Series Regression with a Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
- Tom Doan, . "PPUNIT: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Perron Unit Root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00160, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Hanson, James A., 1983. "Contractionary devaluation, substitution in production and consumption, and the role of the labor market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 179-189, February.
- Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-77, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:ix:y:2006:i:1-2:p:45-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Eleni Giannakopoulou)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.