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The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement

  • Neil R. Ericsson
  • John S. Irons

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique. A database is constructed of all articles in the Social Science Citation Index that cite Lucas (1976). Those articles are characterized by the nature of the article, the context in which Lucas (1976) is cited, and the evidence presented on the Lucas critique. Virtually no evidence exists that empirically substantiates the Lucas critique. Empirical refutation of the Lucas critique by using tests of super exogeneity is illustrated with U.K. money demand. Numerous other studies similarly refute the Lucas critique for various empirical macro-economic relations.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 506.

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Date of creation: 1995
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:506
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  1. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1999. "Encompassing and rational expectations: How sequential corroboration can imply refutation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-21.
  2. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  4. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
  5. John H. Cochrane, 1988. "The Sensitivity of Tests of the Intertemporal Allocation of Consumption to Near-Rational Alternatives," NBER Working Papers 2730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Steven B. Kamin & Neil R. Ericsson, 1993. "Dollarization in Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 460, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1989. "An econometric analysis of UK money demand in MONETARY TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE UNITED KINGDOM by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz," International Finance Discussion Papers 355, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Neftci, Salih & Sargent, Thomas J., 1978. "A little bit of evidence on the natural rate hypothesis from the U.S," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 315-319, April.
  9. Lubrano, M & Pierse, R G & Richard, J-F, 1986. "Stability of a U.K. Money Demand Equation: A Bayesian Approach to Testing Exogeneity," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 603-24, August.
  10. Steel, Mark F. J. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1991. "Bayesian multivariate exogeneity analysis : An application to a UK money demand equation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 239-274.
  11. McNelis, Paul D & Neftci, Salih N, 1982. "Policy-Dependent Parameters in the Presence of Optimal Learning: An Application of Kalman Filtering to the Fair and Sargent Supply-Side Equations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(2), pages 296-306, May.
  12. Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May.
  13. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  14. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson, 1988. "Econometric modeling of consumers' expenditure in Venezuela," International Finance Discussion Papers 325, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Hoffman, D. & Pagan, A., 1988. "Post-Sample Prediction Tests For Generalized Method Of Moment Estimators," RCER Working Papers 129, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  16. King, Robert G., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 169-172, January.
  17. Smith, Gregor W, 1986. "A Dynamic Baumol-Tobin Model of Money Demand," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 465-69, July.
  18. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  19. Milbourne, Ross, 1983. "Optimal Money Holding under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(3), pages 685-98, October.
  20. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August.
  21. HENRY, David F. & RICHARD, Jean-François, . "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," CORE Discussion Papers RP -502, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  22. Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "The Fall and Rise of Keynesian Economics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(187), pages 278-94, December.
  23. George A. Akerlof & Ross D. Milbourne, 1978. "Irving Fisher on his head II: the consequences of the timing of payments for the demand for money," Special Studies Papers 122, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. : Katarina Juselius, 1993. "VAR Modelling and Haavelmo's Probability Approach to Macroeconomic Modelling," Discussion Papers 93-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  25. Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1994. "Modelling Linear Dynamic Econometric Systems," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
  26. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  27. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  28. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
  29. Laband, David N & Piette, Michael J, 1994. "The Relative Impacts of Economics Journals: 1970-1990," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 640-66, June.
  30. LaHaye, Laura, 1985. "Inflation and Currency Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(3), pages 537-60, June.
  31. Akerlof, George A, 1979. "Irving Fisher on His Head: The Consequences of Constant Threshold-Target Monitoring of Money Holdings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 169-87, May.
  32. Lucas, Robert E., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 137-167, January.
  33. Hendry, David F, 1988. "The Encompassing Implications of Feedback versus Feedforward Mechanisms in Econometrics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 132-49, March.
  34. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
  35. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
  36. Peek, Joe & Wilcox, James A, 1987. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Reduced Form for Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 273-91, August.
  37. Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1990. "Are consumption-based intertemporal capital asset pricing models structural?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 121-139.
  38. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-37, April.
  39. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  40. Favero, C. & Hendry, D., 1990. "Testing The Lucas Critique: A Review," Economics Series Working Papers 99101, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  41. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
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