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VAR Modelling and Haavelmo's Probability Approach to Macroeconomic Modelling


  • : Katarina Juselius

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)


Some recent developments in the macroeconometric analysis of time series are discussed in the light of Haavelmo (1944). Experimental design in econometrics is discussed and related to the case of passive observation. The general ideas are illustrated with an analysis of the long-run and short-run structure in Danish monetary data.

Suggested Citation

  • : Katarina Juselius, 1993. "VAR Modelling and Haavelmo's Probability Approach to Macroeconomic Modelling," Discussion Papers 93-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:9305

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lo, Kin Chung, 1996. "Equilibrium in Beliefs under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 443-484, November.
    2. Hendon, Ebbe & Jacobsen, Hans JØrgen & Sloth, Birgitte & TranÆs, Torben, 1994. "Expected Utility with Lower Probabilities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 197-216, March.
    3. Dow James & Werlang Sergio Ribeiro Da Costa, 1994. "Nash Equilibrium under Knightian Uncertainty: Breaking Down Backward Induction," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 305-324, December.
    4. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    5. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-587, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:intfor:v:34:y:2018:i:1:p:119-135 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hendry, David F., 1997. "On congruent econometric relations : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 163-190, December.
    3. Chiarini, Bruno & Piselli, Paolo, 2001. "Identification and dimension of the NAIRU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 585-611, December.
    4. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Reffett, Kevin L., 1995. "I(2) representations of US money demand," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 415-423, October.
    5. Bruggeman, Annick & Donnay, Marie, 2003. "A monthly monetary model with banking intermediation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    6. Ericsson, Neil R., 1995. "Conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 159-171, September.
    7. Sunil Sharma & Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 417-436.
    8. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons, 1995. "The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Salvatore D'Acunto & Sergio Destefanis & Marco Musella, 2004. "Exports, Supply Constraints and Growth: An Investigation using Regional Data," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 167-189.
    10. Yu, Qiao, 1998. "Capital investment, international trade and economic growth in China: Evidence in the 1980-1990s," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 73-84.
    11. John S. Irons & N. Ericsson, "undated". "An early version of The Lucas Critique in Practice: Theory without Measurement," Home Pages _004, Massachussets Institute of Technology, Economics.
    12. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    13. Chiarini, Bruno & Piselli, Paolo, 2000. "Unemployment, Wage Pressure and Sectoral Shifts: Permanent and Temporary Consequences of Intersectoral Shocks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 777-799, December.

    More about this item


    Haavelmo; macroeconometric time series modelling; multivariate cointegration; nonstationary time series;

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models


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