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Modeling Inflation in Australia

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  • de Brouwer, Gordon
  • Ericsson, Neil R

Abstract

This article develops an empirically constant, data-coherent, error-correction model for inflation in Australia. The level of consumer prices is a markup over domestic and import costs, with adjustments for dynamics and relative aggregate demand. The authors address issues of cointegration, general to specific modeling, dynamic specification, model evaluation and testing, parameter constancy, forecasting, and exogeneity. They also test this model against existing models of Australian prices: this model encompasses, but is not encompassed by, the existing models.

Suggested Citation

  • de Brouwer, Gordon & Ericsson, Neil R, 1998. "Modeling Inflation in Australia," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 433-449, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:16:y:1998:i:4:p:433-49
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicholls, D F & Pagan, A R, 1983. "Heteroscedasticity in Models with Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1233-1242, July.
    2. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    3. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics : Differences and common themes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 719-754, May.
    4. M. H. Pesaran, 1974. "On the General Problem of Model Selection," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 153-171.
    5. Michael Coelli & Jerome Fahrer, 1992. "Indicators of Inflationary Pressure," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9207, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    7. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    8. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-277, August.
    9. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    10. Metin, Kivilcim, 1995. "An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 513-531, November.
    11. Neil R. Ericsson, 1983. "Asymptotic Properties of Instrumental Variables Statistics for Testing Non-Nested Hypotheses," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 287-304.
    12. Gregor W. Smith, 1986. "A Dynamic Baumol-Tobin Model of Money Demand," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 465-469.
    13. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
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