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An econometric analysis of UK money demand in MONETARY TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE UNITED KINGDOM by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz

  • David F. Hendry
  • Neil R. Ericsson

This paper evaluates an empirical model of UK money demand developed by Friedman and Schwartz in Monetary Trends... .Testing reveals mis-specification and hence the potential for an improved model. Using recursive procedures on their annual data, we obtain a better-fitting, constant, dynamic error-correction (cointegration) model. Results on exogeneity and encompassing imply that our money-demand model is interpretable as a model of money but not of prices since its constancy holds only conditional on contemporaneous prices.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 355.

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Date of creation: 1989
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:355
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  1. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
  2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  3. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, December.
  4. Lubrano, M & Pierse, R G & Richard, J-F, 1986. "Stability of a U.K. Money Demand Equation: A Bayesian Approach to Testing Exogeneity," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 603-24, August.
  5. James G. MacKinnon & Halbert White, 1983. "Some Heteroskedasticity Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimators with Improved Finite Sample Properties," Working Papers 537, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  6. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
  7. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
  8. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
  9. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1990. "An analogue model of phase-averaging procedures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 275-292, March.
  10. Hendry, D.F. & Richard, J.-F., 1987. "Recent developments in the theory of encompassing," CORE Discussion Papers 1987022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  11. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson, 1988. "Econometric modeling of consumers' expenditure in Venezuela," International Finance Discussion Papers 325, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  13. Hendry, David F. & Neale, Adrian J. & Srba, Frank, 1988. "Econometric analysis of small linear systems using PC-FIML," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 203-226.
  14. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
  15. Kiviet, Jan F., 1985. "Model selection test procedures in a single linear equation of a dynamic simultaneous system and their defects in small samples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 327-362, June.
  16. McAleer, Michael & Pagan, Adrian, 1985. "What Will Take the Con Out of Econometrics?," CEPR Discussion Papers 39, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Mayer, Thomas, 1982. "Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom: A Review Article," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1528-39, December.
  18. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1985. "Assertion without empirical basis : an econometric appraisal of monetary trends in ... the United Kingdom, by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz," International Finance Discussion Papers 270, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  20. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
  21. Edward E. Leamer, 1982. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," UCLA Economics Working Papers 239, UCLA Department of Economics.
  22. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1986. "Professor Hendry's Econometric Methodology," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 283-307, August.
  23. Florens, Jean-Pierre & Mouchart, Michel, 1985. "A Linear Theory for Noncausality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 157-75, January.
  24. Goodhart, Charles A E, 1982. "Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom: A British Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1540-51, December.
  25. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1985. "Conditional econometric modelling : an application to new house prices in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 254, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1982. "Recursive stability analysis of linear regression relationships: An exploratory methodology," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 31-76, May.
  27. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-63, September.
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