IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The Fragility of Sensitivity Analysis: An Encompassing Perspective

  • Neil R. Ericsson

Robustness and fragility in Leamer's sense are defined with respect to a particular coefficient over a class of models. This paper shows that inclusion of the data generation process in that class of models is neither necessary nor sufficient for robustness. This result holds even if the properly specified model has well-determined, statistically significant coefficients. The encompassing principle explains how this result can occur. Encompassing also provides a link to a more common-sense notion of robustness, which is still a desirable property empirically; and encompassing clarifies recent discussion on model averaging and the pooling of forecasts. Copyright (c) Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford, 2008.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2008.00535.x
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 70 (2008)
Issue (Month): s1 (December)
Pages: 895-914

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:70:y:2008:i:s1:p:895-914
Contact details of provider: Postal: Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0305-9049
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0305-9049

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
  2. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
  3. Christian Bjørnskov & Axel Dreher & Justina A.V. Fischer, 2005. "Cross-Country Determinants of Life Satisfaction: Exploring Different Determinants across Groups in Society," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-19, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  4. Hendry, David F, 1985. "Monetary Economic Myth and Econometric Reality," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 72-84, Spring.
  5. Kiviet, Jan F. & Phillips, Garry D. A., 1994. "Bias assessment and reduction in linear error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 215-243, July.
  6. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 383, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  8. David Hendry & Søren Johansen & Carlos Santos, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 337-339, April.
  9. Ericsson, Neil R & Marquez, Jaime, 1993. "Encompassing the Forecasts of U.S. Trade Balance Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 19-31, February.
  10. Gouriéroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1995. "Testing, Encompassing, and Simulating Dynamic Econometric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 195-228, February.
  11. Bontemps, Christophe & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Congruence and encompassing," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0107, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  12. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  13. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," International Finance Discussion Papers 779, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Papers 2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  15. Magee, Lonnie, 1990. "The Asymptotic Variance of Extreme Bounds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 182-84, February.
  16. Allen, Stuart D & Connolly, Robert A, 1989. "Financial Market Effects on Aggregate Money Demand: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 158-75, May.
  17. Granger, Clive W. J. & Uhlig, Harald F., 1990. "Reasonable extreme-bounds analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 159-170.
  18. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May.
  19. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
  20. Lu, Maozu & Mizon, Grayham E., 1996. "The Encompassing Principle and Hypothesis Testing," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 845-858, December.
  21. Mizon, Grayham E & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1986. "The Encompassing Principle and Its Application to Testing Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 657-78, May.
  22. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1986. "Professor Hendry's Econometric Methodology," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 283-307, August.
  23. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
  24. Leamer, Edward E, 1997. "Revisiting Tobin's 1950 Study of Food Expenditure: Reply," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(5), pages 559-61, Sept.-Oct.
  25. Stewart, Mark B., 1984. "Significance tests in the presence of model uncertainty and specification search," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 309-313.
  26. Hendry, David F & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 105, Royal Economic Society.
  27. Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356.
  28. Johansen, S., 1991. "Testing Weak Exogeneity and the Order of Cointegration in UK Money Demand Data," Papers 78, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  29. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
  30. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2007. "AUTOMATIC TESTS for SUPER EXOGENEITY," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 11, Faculdade de Economia e Gestão, Universidade Católica Portuguesa (Porto).
  31. Hendry, D.F. & Richard, J.-F., 1987. "Recent developments in the theory of encompassing," CORE Discussion Papers 1987022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  32. Edwards Jeffrey A & Sams Alfred & Yang Benhua, 2006. "A Refinement in the Specification of Empirical Macroeconomic Models as an Extension to the EBA Procedure," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, October.
  33. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, . "Truth and Robustness in Cross-country Growth Regressions," Department of Economics 01-01, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  34. Bent Nielsen & Soren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2008. "An analysis of the indicator saturation estimator as a robust regression estimator," Economics Series Working Papers 2008-WO3, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  35. Danila Serra, 2005. "Empirical determinants of corruption: A sensitivity analysis," Economics Series Working Papers GPRG-WPS-012, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  36. Cooley, Thomas F & LeRoy, Stephen F, 1981. "Identification and Estimation of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 825-44, December.
  37. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
  38. Freille, Sebastian & Haque, M. Emranul & Kneller, Richard, 2007. "A contribution to the empirics of press freedom and corruption," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 838-862, December.
  39. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
  40. Bruce E. Hansen, 2007. "Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1175-1189, 07.
  41. Hendry, David F, 1988. "The Encompassing Implications of Feedback versus Feedforward Mechanisms in Econometrics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 132-49, March.
  42. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1999. "Improving on 'Data mining reconsidered' by K.D. Hoover and S.J. Perez," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 202-219.
  43. Leamer, Edward E & Leonard, Herman B, 1983. "Reporting the Fragility of Regression Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 306-17, May.
  44. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521269124 is not listed on IDEAS
  45. Neil R. Ericsson, 1991. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: an exposition, extensions, and illustration," International Finance Discussion Papers 412, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  46. McAleer, Michael & Veall, Michael R, 1989. "How Fragile Are Fragile Inferences? A Re-evaluation of the Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 99-106, February.
  47. McAleer, Michael & Pagan, Adrian R & Volker, Paul A, 1985. "What Will Take the Con out of Econometrics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 293-307, June.
  48. Govaerts, Bernadette & Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1994. "Encompassing in stationary linear dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 245-270, July.
  49. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1976. "The Case of the Missing Money," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(3), pages 683-740.
  50. Chong, Yock Y & Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 671-90, August.
  51. Leamer, Edward E, 1997. "Revisiting Tobin's 1950 Study of Food Expenditure," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(5), pages 533-53, Sept.-Oct.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:70:y:2008:i:s1:p:895-914. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.