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Improving on 'Data mining reconsidered' by K.D. Hoover and S.J. Perez




Kevin Hoover and Stephen Perez take important steps towards resolving some key issues in econometric methodology. They simulate general-to-specific selection for linear, dynamic regression models, and find that their algorithm performs well in re-mining the ?Lovell database?. We discuss developments that improve on their results, automated in PcGets. Monte Carlo experiments and re-analyses of empirical studies show that pre-selection F-tests, encompassing tests, and sub-sample reliability checks all help eliminate ?spuriously-significant? regressors, without impugning recovery of the correct specification.

Suggested Citation

  • David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1999. "Improving on 'Data mining reconsidered' by K.D. Hoover and S.J. Perez," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 202-219.
  • Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:2:y:1999:i:2:p:202-219

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham Ernest, 1985. "Procrustean Econometrics: Stretching and Squeezing Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 68, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    5. Gregory D. Hess & Christopher S. Jones & Richard D. Porter, 1994. "The predictive failure of the Baba, Hendry and Starr model of the demand for M1 in the United States," Research Working Paper 94-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    6. Anindya Banerjee, 1994. "Dynamic Specification and Testing for Unit Roots and Co-Integration," Working Papers 914, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    7. Lovell, Michael C, 1983. "Data Mining," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-12, February.
    8. Phillips, P C B, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(187), pages 344-359, December.
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    10. McAleer, Michael & Pagan, Adrian R & Volker, Paul A, 1985. "What Will Take the Con out of Econometrics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 293-307, June.
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    12. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
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    19. Hoover, Kevin D, 1988. "On the Pitfalls of Untested Common-Factor Restrictions: The Case of the Inverted Fisher Hypothesis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(2), pages 125-138, May.
    20. Ericsson, Neil R. & Campos, Julia & Tran, Hong-Anh, 1990. "Pc-Give and David Hendry'S Econometric Methodology," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 10(1), April.
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    24. Hendry, D.F. & Richard, J.-F., 1987. "Recent developments in the theory of encompassing," CORE Discussion Papers 1987022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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