Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search
This paper examines the efficacy of the general-to-specific modeling approach associated with the LSE school of econometrics using a simulation framework. A mechanical algorithm is developed which mimics some aspects of the search procedures used by LSE practitioners. The algorithm is tested using 1000 replications of each of nine regression models and a data set patterned after Lovell's (1983) study of data mining. The algorithm is assessed for its ability to recover the data-generating process. Monte Carlo estimates of the size and power of exclusion tests based on t -statistics for individual variables in the specification are also provided. The roles of alternative sizes for specification tests in the algorithm, the consequences of different signal-to-noise ratios, and strategies for reducing overparameterization are also investigated. The results are largely favorable to the general-to-specific approach. In particular, the size of exclusion tests remains close to the nominal size used in the algorithm despite extensive search.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Volume (Year): 2 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2 Dean Trench Street, Westminster, SW1P 3HE|
Phone: +44 20 3137 6301
Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.ectj.org|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Anindya Banerjee, 1994. "Dynamic Specification and Testing for Unit Roots and Co-Integration," Working Papers 914, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Hoover, Kevin D, 1988. "On the Pitfalls of Untested Common-Factor Restrictions: The Case of the Inverted Fisher Hypothesis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(2), pages 125-138, May.
- Lovell, Michael C, 1983. "Data Mining," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-12, February.
- Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham Ernest, 1985. "Procrustean Econometrics: Stretching and Squeezing Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 68, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots,"
NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-174, Summer.
- Phillips, P C B, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(187), pages 344-359, December.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 893, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Neil R. Ericsson & Julia Campos & Hong-Anh Tran, 1991. "PC-give and David Hendry's econometric methodology," International Finance Discussion Papers 406, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Thomas Mayer, 1992. "Truth Versus Precision In Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 307.
- Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-313, June.
- repec:sbe:breart:v:10:y:1990:i:1:a:3021 is not listed on IDEAS
- Gilbert, Christopher L, 1986. "Professor Hendry's Econometric Methodology," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 283-307, August.
- McAleer, Michael & Pagan, Adrian R & Volker, Paul A, 1985. "What Will Take the Con out of Econometrics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 293-307, June.
- McAleer, Michael & Pagan, Adrian, 1985. "What Will Take the Con Out of Econometrics?," CEPR Discussion Papers 39, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mayer, Thomas, 1980. "Economics as a Hard Science: Realistic Goal or Wishful Thinking?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 165-178, April.
- David F. Hendry, 1988. "Encompassing," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 125(1), pages 88-103, August.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Methodology: Alchemy or Science: Review Article," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1398-1413, September.
- Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
- HENRY, David F. & RICHARD, Jean-François, "undated". "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," CORE Discussion Papers RP 502, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
- Hendry, D.F. & Richard, J.-F., 1987. "Recent developments in the theory of encompassing," CORE Discussion Papers 1987022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Pagan, Adrian, 1987. " Three Econometric Methodologies: A Critical Appraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 3-24.
- Mizon, Grayham E & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1986. "The Encompassing Principle and Its Application to Testing Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 657-678, May.
- Gregory D. Hess & Christopher S. Jones & Richard D. Porter, 1994. "The predictive failure of the Baba, Hendry and Starr model of the demand for M1 in the United States," Research Working Paper 94-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Gregory D. Hess & Christopher S. Jones & Richard D. Porter, 1994. "The predictive failure of the Baba, Hendry and Starr model of the demand for M1 in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Li, Hongyi & Maddala, G. S., 1997. "Bootstrapping cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 297-318, October.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS program to demonstrate bootstrapping with cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00021, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:2:y:1999:i:2:p:167-191. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.