# University of California, Davis, Department of Economics

# Working Papers

Postal: One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616-8578

Phone: (530) 752-0741

Fax: (530) 752-9382

Web page: http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu

Email:

More information through EDIRC

Phone: (530) 752-0741

Fax: (530) 752-9382

Web page: http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu

Email:

More information through EDIRC

**For corrections or technical questions regarding this series, please contact (Scott Dyer)**

**Series handle:**repec:cda:wpaper

**Citations RSS feed:**at CitEc

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**Undated material is presented at the end, although it may be more recent than other items**

### 2016

**163 Exploring the gap between perfect Bayesian equilibrium and sequential equilibrium***by*Giacomo Bonanno**162 Does Exposure to Unawareness Affect Risk Preferences? A Preliminary Result***by*Wenjun Ma & Burkhard Schipper**161 The Strategic Determination of the Supply of Liquid Assets***by*Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck

### 2015

**153 A Tractable Model of Indirect Asset Liquidity***by*Lucas Herrenbrueck & Athanasios Geromichalos**152 Game Theory: Parts I and II. Open access book***by*Giacomo Bonanno**151 Strategic teaching and learning in games***by*Burkhard Schipper

### 2014

**149 Reasoning about strategies and rational play in dynamic games***by*Giacomo Bonanno**148 Political Awareness, Microtargeting of Voters, and Negative Electoral Campaigning***by*Burkhard Schipper & Hee Yeul Woo**147 Sex hormones and choice under risk***by*Burkhard Schipper**145 Unawareness - A Gentle Introduction to both the Literature and the Special Issue***by*Burkhard Schipper**144 An Over-the-Counter Approach to the FOREX Market***by*Athanasios Geromichalos & Kuk Mo Jung**143 Over-the-Counter Trade and the Value of Assets as Collateral***by*Athanasios Geromichalos & Jiwon Lee & Seungduck Lee & Keita Oikawa**141 AGM-consistency and perfect Bayesian equilibrium. Part II: from PBE to sequential equilibrium***by*Burkhard Schipper

### 2013

**139 Bayesian Games with Unawareness and Unawareness Perfection***by*Martin Meier & Burkhard Schipper**138 A Search-Theoretic Model of the Term Premium***by*Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck & Kevin Salyer**137 Counterfactuals and the Prisoner?s Dilemma***by*Giacomo Bonanno**136 Logic and Game Theory***by*Giacomo Bonanno & Cédric Dégremont**135 Logic and Game Theory***by*Giacomo Bonanno & Cédric Dégremont**134 Logic and Game Theory***by*Giacomo Bonanno & Cédric Dégremont**133 The Resource Curse Exorcised: Evidence from a Panel of Countries***by*Brock Smith**132 An epistemic characterization of generalized backward induction***by*Giacomo Bonanno**131 When is Tit-For-Tat unbeatable?***by*Peter Duersch & Joerg Oechssler & Burkhard Schipper**102 Speculative Trade under Unawareness: The Infinite Case***by*Martin Meier & Burkhard C. Schipper

### 2012

**129 Bayesian Games with Unawareness and Unawareness Perfection***by*Martin Meier & Burkhard Schipper**128 Sex Hormones and Competitive Bidding***by*Burkhard Schipper**127 Sex Hormones and Choice under Risk***by*Burkhard Schipper**126 Ziliak and McClosky?s Criticisms of Significance Tests: A Damage Assessment***by*Thomas Mayer**125 Unbeatable Imitation***by*Peter Duersch & Joerg Oechssler & Burkhard Schipper**124 Political Awareness and Microtargeting of Voters in Electoral Competition***by*Burkhard Schipper & Hee Yeul Woo**123 Civic capital and the size distribution of plants: Short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium***by*Mathias Burker & G. Alfredo Minerva**1224 When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles and Crises***by*Oscar Jorda & Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor**1223 Measuring risk aversion with lists: A new bias***by*Antoni Bosch-Domenech & Joaquim Silvestre**1222 Should we sustain? And if so, sustain what? Consumption or the quality of life?***by*Humberto Llavador & John E. Roemer & Joaquim Silvestre**1221 Directed Search and the Bertrand Paradox***by*Athanasios Geromichalos**1220 Monetary Policy, Asset Prices, and Liquidity in Over-the-Counter Markets***by*Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck**122 A dynamic epistemic characterization of backward induction without counterfactuals***by*Giacomo Bonanno**1219 Unemployment Insurance and Optimal Taxation in Search Models of the Labor Market***by*Athanasios Geromichalos**1218 Unemployment Insurance and Optimal Taxation in Search Models of the Labor Market***by*Athanasios Geromichalos**1217 ARMAX(p,r,q) Parameter Identifiability Without Coprimeness***by*Leon Wegge**1216 The Selection of Migrants and Returnees in Romania: Evidence and long-run implications***by*William Ambrosini & Karin Mayr & Giovanni Peri & Dragos Radu**1215 Immigration, Jobs and Employment Protection: Evidence from Europe before and during the Great Recession***by*D'Amuri Francesco & Giovanni Peri**1214 The Role of Income and Immigration Policies in Attracting International Migrants***by*Francesc Ortega & Giovanni Peri**1213 The Effect of Trade and Migration on Income***by*Francesc Ortega & Giovanni Peri**1210 Measuring risk aversion with lists: A new bias***by*Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Joaquim Silvestre**121 Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade Using a Dynamic Gravity Framework***by*Douglas Campbell**1110 Menstrual Cycle and Competitive Bidding***by*Matthew Pearson & Burkhard Schipper

### 2011

**119 The Visible Hand: Finger Ratio (2D:4D) and Competitive Bidding***by*Matthew Pearson & Burkhard Schipper**118 Unawareness, Beliefs, and Speculative Trade***by*Aviad Heifetz & Martin Meier & Burkhard Schipper**117 Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?***by*Ju Hyun Pyun & Giacomo Bonanno**116 Preference-Dependent Unawareness***by*Burkhard Schipper**115 Strategic Control of Myopic Best Reply in Repeated Games***by*Burkhard Schipper**114 Prudent Rationalizability in Generalized Extensive-Form Games***by*Aviad Heifetz & Martin Meier & Burkhard Schipper**113 Dynamic unawareness and rationalizable behavior***by*Aviad Heifetz & Martin Meier & Burkhard Schipper**112 The Elasticity of Trade: Estimates and Evidence***by*Ina Simonovska & Michael Waugh**1112 Once Beaten, Never Again: Imitation in Two-Player Potential Games***by*Peter Duersch & Joerg Oechssler & Burkhard Schipper**1111 Reasoning about strategies and rational play in dynamic games***by*Giacomo Bonanno**111 Perfect Bayesian equilibrium. Part II: epistemic foundations***by*Giacomo Bonanno**103 Unbeatable Imitation***by*Peter Duersch & Joerg Oechssler & Burkhard C. Schipper**1022 Awareness-Dependent Subjective Expected Utility***by*Burkhard Schipper**1015 Income Differences and Prices of Tradables***by*Ina Simonovska

### 2010

**109 Financial Choice in a Non-Ricardian Model of Trade***by*Katheryn Russ & Diego Valderrama**108 FDI in the Banking Sector***by*Beatriz de Blas & Katheryn Russ**107 Robust Inference with Clustered Data***by*A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller**106 Robust Inference with Clustered Data***by*A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller**105 Revealed Unawareness***by*Burkhard Schipper**104 Pure Saddle Points and Symmetric Relative Payoff Games***by*Peter Duersch & Joerg Oechssler & Burkhard C. Schipper**1021 Pure Strategy Equilibria in Symmetric Two-Player Zero-Sum Games***by*Peter Duersch & Joerg Oechssler & Burkhard Schipper**1020 A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding***by*Hsieh Fushing & Shu-Chun Chen & Travis J. Berge & Oscar Jorda**1019 Carry Trade***by*Oscar Jorda**1017 AGM-consistency and perfect Bayesian equilibrium. Part I: definition and properties***by*Giacomo Bonanno**1016 Directed Search and Optimal Production***by*Athanasios Geromichalos**1014 The Surprising Wealth of Pre-industrial England***by*Gregory Clark & Joe Cummins & Brock Smith**1013 Malthus to Modernity: England?s First Fertility Transition, 1760-1800***by*Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins**1012 Risk Shocks and Housing Markets***by*Victor Dorofeenko & Gabriel Lee & Kevin Salyer**1010 Rethinking the Area Approach: Immigrants and the Labor Market in California, 1960-2005***by*Giovanni Peri**101 Belief change in branching time: AGM-consistency and iterated revision***by*Giacomo Bonanno

### 2009

**99 Robust Inference with Multi-way Clustering***by*Jonah B. Gelbach & Doug Miller**98 Robust Inference with Multi-way Clustering***by*A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller & Doug Miller**97 Migration and Trade: Theory with an Application to the Eastern-Western European Integration***by*Susana Iranzo & Giovanni Peri**96 The Causes and Effects of International Migrations: Evidence from OECD Countries 1980-2005***by*Francesc Ortega & Giovanni Peri**95 A Dynamic Analysis Of Human Welfare In A Warming Planet?***by*Humberto Llavador & John E. Roemer & Joaquim Silvestre & Joaquim Silvestre**94 Intergenerational justice when future worlds are uncertain***by*Joaquim Silvestre & Joaquim Silvestre & John E. Roemer & Joaquim Silvestre**93 Two Models of Unawareness: Comparing the object-based and subjective-state-space approaches***by*Burkhard C. Schipper & Oliver Board & Kim-Sau Chung**922 Modeling Sample Selection for Durations with Time-Varying Covariates, With an Application to the Duration of Exchange Rate Regimes***by*Frederick J. Boehmke & Chris Meissner**921 Foreign Currency Debt, Financial Crises and Economic Growth: A Long Run View***by*Michael Bordo & David Stuckler & Chris Meissner**920 Unawareness, Beliefs and Speculative Trade***by*Aviad Heifetz & Martin Meier & Burkhard C. Schipper**92 Honesty and Integrity in Economics***by*Thomas Mayer**919 The Macroeconomic Aggregates for England, 1209-2008***by*Gregory Clark**918 The Classification of Economic Activity into Expansions and Recessions***by*Travis Berge & Oscar Jorda**917 How mindless is standard economics really?***by*Burkhard C. Schipper**916 A Theory of Banks, Bonds, and the Distribution of Firm Size***by*Diego Valderrama & Katheryn N. Russ**914 A characterization of sequential equilibrium in terms of AGM belief revision***by*Giacomo Bonanno**913 Rethinking the Area Approach: Immigrants and the Labor Market in California, 1960-2005***by*Giovanni Peri**912 The Visible Hand: Finger Ratio (2D:4D) and Competitive Behavior***by*Matthew Pearson & Burkhard C. Schipper**911 Menstrual Cycle and Competitive Bidding***by*Matthew Pearson & Burkhard C. Schipper**910 Dynamic Unawareness and Rationalizable Behavior***by*Martin Meier & Burkhard C. Schipper & Aviad Heifetz**91 Task Specialization, Immigration and Wages***by*Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber

### 2008

**87 Welfare Reform, 1834***by*Gregory Clark & Marianne Page**86 Non-cooperative game theory***by*Giacomo Bonanno**85 Path Forecast Evaluation***by*Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino**84 On an Evolutionary Foundation of Neuroeconomics***by*Burkhard C. Schipper**81 Incentives for Subjects in Internet Experiments***by*Burkhard C. Schipper & Jörg Oechssler

### 2007

**83 The Probability Approach To General Equilibrium With Production***by*Martine Quinzii & Michael Magill**79 Temporal Belief Revision Rationalized by Plausibility Orderings***by*Giacomo Bonanno**78 Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance***by*Oscar Jorda & Sharon Kozicki**77 Inference for Impulse Responses***by*Oscar Jorda**76 Four Logics for Minimal Belief Revision***by*Giacomo Bonanno**75 A Statitical Approach to General equilibrium with Production***by*Martine Quinzii & Michael Magill**74 Sylvester Matrix and Common Factors in Polynomial Matrices***by*Leon Wegge**73 Unawareness, Beliefs and Games***by*Burkhard C. Schipper & Aviad Heifetz & Martin Meier**72 Two Lectures On The Epistemic Foundations Of Game Theory***by*Giacomo Bonanno**71 A Syntactic Approach to Rationality in Games***by*Giacomo Bonanno**624 Joint Inference and Counterfactual experimentation for Impulse Response Functions by Local Projections***by*Oscar Jorda

### 2006

**638 Competition and the Location of Overseas Assembly***by*Deborah Swenson**637 The Effects of Immigration on California's Labor Market***by*Giovanni Peri**636 International Migrations: Some Comparisons and Lessons for the European Union***by*Giovanni Peri**635 Schooling Externalities, Technology and Productivity:Theory and Evidence from U.S. States***by*Giovanni Peri & Susana Iranzo**634 Rethinking the Effects of Immigration on Wages***by*Giovanni Peri & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano**633 Father's Education and Children's Human Capital: Evidence from the World War II GI Bill***by*Marianne Page**632 Re-Assessing the U.S. Quality Adjustment to Computer Prices: The Role of Durability and Changing Software***by*Christopher Knittel & Robert Feenstra**631 Tacit Collusion in the Presence of Cyclical Demand and Endogenous Capacity Levels***by*Christopher Knittel & Jason Lepore**630 Inefficiencies and Market Power in Financial Arbitrage: A Study of California?s Electricity Markets***by*Christopher Knittel & Catherine Wolfram & James Bushnell & Severin Borenstein**629 Strategic Incompatibility in ATM Markets***by*Christopher Knittel & Victor Stango**628 Outsourcing and Volatility***by*Paul Bergin & Robert Feenstra**627 Granny versus Game Theorist: Ambiguity in Experimental Games***by*Burkhard C. Schipper & Juergen Eichberger & David Kelsey**626 Cournot Competition between Teams: An Experimental Study***by*Burkhard C. Schipper & Philippe Raab**625 Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand***by*Christopher Knittel & Daniel Sperling**623 Projection Minimum Distance: An Estimator for Dynamic Macroeconomic Models***by*Oscar Jorda & Sharon Kozicki**622 Entry, Multinational Firms, and Exchange Rate Volatility***by*Katheryn N. Russ & Thomas A. Lubik**621 Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors***by*Doug Miller & A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach**620 The Empirical Significance of Econometric Models***by*Thomas Mayer**619 EURO-PRODUCTIVITY AND EURO-JOBS SINCE THE 1960s: WHICH INSTITUTIONS REALLY MATTERED?***by*Peter Lindert & Gayle Allard**618 What made Britannia great? Did the Industrial Revolution make Britain a World Power?***by*Gregory Clark**617 Axiomatization of the AGM theory of belief revision in a temporal logic***by*Giacomo Bonanno**616 Coal and the Industrial Revolution, 1700-1869***by*Gregory Clark & David Jacks**615 Survival of the Richest: The Malthusian Mechanism in Pre-Industrial England***by*Gregory Clark & Gillian Hamilton**614 A Bootstrap Method for Identifying and Evaluating a Structural Vector Autoregression***by*Kevin Hoover & Selva Demiralp & Stephen J. Perez**612 Categorical Data***by*A. Colin Cameron**61 Time-Varying Uncertainty and the Credit Channel***by*Kevin Salyer & Gabriel Lee

### 2005

**67 Stuck on Gold:Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Rise and Fall of the Gold Standard, 1870?1939***by*Alan M. Taylor & Natalia Chernyshoff & David Jacks**64 Economic Theory and Causal Inference***by*Kevin Hoover**63 Dr. Keynes: Economic Theory in a Diagnostic Science***by*Kevin Hoover**62 A New Algorithm for Solving Dynamic Stochastic Macroeconomic Models***by*Kevin Salyer & Victor Dorofeenko & Gabriel Lee**613 Estimation of Country-Pair Data Models Controlling for Clustered Errors: with International Trade Applications***by*A. Colin Cameron & Natalia Golotvina**59 The International Dynamics of R&D and Innovationin the Short Run and in the Long Run***by*Giovanni Peri & Laura Bottaz**58 Rethinking the Gains from Immigration: Theory and Evidence from the U.S***by*Giovanni Peri & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano**57 A Canonical Model for Interactive Unawareness***by*Burkhard C. Schipper & Martin Meier & Aviad Heifetz**56 School Progression and the Grade Distribution of Students: Evidence from the Current Population Survey***by*Elizabeth Cascio**55 Macroeconomic Priorities and Crash States***by*Kevin Salyer**541 Temporal interaction of information and belief***by*Giacomo Bonanno**540 The Long March of History: Farm Wages, Population and Economic Growth, England 1209-1869***by*Gregory Clark**54 Endogenous Regulatory Delay and the Timing of Product Innovation***by*James E. Prieger**539 The Condition of the Working-Class in England, 1209-2004***by*Gregory Clark**537 Imitators and Optimizers in Cournot oligopoly***by*Burkhard C. Schipper**536 Ambiguity and Social Interaction***by*Burkhard C. Schipper & David Kelsey**535 Estimation of a Simple Queuing System WithUnits-in-Service and Complete Data***by*James E. Prieger**534 Does Head Start Improve Children?s Life Chances? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design***by*Doug Miller & Jens Ludwig**532 Incompatibility, Product Attributes and Consumer Welfare: Evidence from ATMs***by*Christopher Knittel & Victor Stango**531 What Mean Impacts Miss:Distributional Effects of Welfare Reform Experiments***by*Hilary W. Hoynes & Marianne P Bitler & Jonah Gelbach**530 Distributional Impacts of the Self-Sufficiency Project***by*Hilary W. Hoynes & Marianne P Bitler & Jonah B. Gelbach**53 An Equilibrium Model of Managerial Compensation***by*Martine Quinzii & Michael Magill**529 Behavioral Responses to Taxes:Lessons from the EITC and Labor Supply***by*Hilary W. Hoynes & Nada Elissa**526 Biases in Static Oligopoly Models?:Evidence from the California Electricity Market***by*Christopher Knittel & Dae-Wook Kim**525 Compatibility and Pricing with Indirect Network Effects: Evidence from ATMs***by*Christopher Knittel & Victor Stango**524 Skills and Talent of Immigrants:A Comparison between the European Union and the United States***by*Giovanni Peri**523 Anticipated Utility and Rational Expectations as Approximations of Bayesian Decision Making***by*Tim W. Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent**522 The Market Price of Risk and the Equity Premium***by*Tim W. Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent**521 The Intergenerational Effects of Worker Displacement***by*Ann Huff Stevens & Marianne Page & Philip Oreopoulos**520 The Impact of Driver Cell Phone Use on Accidents***by*James E. Prieger & Robert W. Hahn**52 Common Shocks and Relative Compensation Schemes***by*Martine Quinzii & Michael Magill**519 The Intergenerational Effects of Compulsory Schooling***by*Ann Huff Stevens & Marianne Page & Philip Oreopoulos**518 What You Don?t Know Can?t Help You: Pension Knowledge and Retirement Decision Making***by*Ann Huff Stevens & Sewin Chan**517 A simple modal logic for belief revision***by*Giacomo Bonanno**516 Rage Against the Machines: How Subjects Learn to Play Against Computers***by*Burkhard C. Schipper & Jorg Oechssler & Albert Kolb**515 Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War***by*Alan M. Taylor & Reuven Glick**514 Tradability, Productivity, and Understanding International Economic Integration***by*Paul Bergin & Reuven Glick**513 Endogenous Tradability andMacroeconomic Implications***by*Paul Bergin & Reuven Glick**512 Does Exchange Rate Variability Matter for Welfare? A Quantitative Investigation of Stabilization Policies***by*Paul Bergin & Hyung-Cheol Shin & Ivan Tchakarov**511 Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle***by*Alan M. Taylor & Paul Bergin & Reuven Glick**510 A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve***by*Tim W. Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone**51 The Impact of Cost Changes on Industry Dynamics***by*James E. Prieger

### 2004

**985 staggered price setting and endogenous persistence***by*Robert Feenstra & Paul Bergin**9815 Bivariate Count Data Regression Using Series Expansions: With Applications***by*A. Colin Cameron & Per Johansson**959 Quasilinear, Overlapping-Generations Economies***by*Joaquim Silvestre**958 Intersubjective Consistency Of Beliefs And The Logic Of Common Belief***by*Giacomo Bonanno**957 Credit Constraints In General Equilibrium: Experimental Results***by*Joaquim Silvestre & Antoni Bosch-Domenech**956 Distributing the Benefits From the Commons: Square-Root Formula***by*Joaquim Silvestre**9521 Monetarism***by*Thomas Mayer & Patrick Minford**9520 Which Improves Welfare More: Nominal Or Indexed Bond?***by*Martine Quinzii & Michael Magill**952 Macroeconomics and Descrimination in Teaching***by*Elias Tuma**9518 The Logic Of Belief Persistency***by*Giacomo Bonanno & Pierpaolo Battigalli**9516 Incentive-Compatibility In Large Games***by*Klaus Nehring**9510 Estimating The Effects Of Trade Policy***by*Robert Feenstra**951 The Peace Process And The Palestinian Refugees***by*Elias Tuma**68 Model-Free Impulse Responses***by*Oscar Jorda**66 Milton Friedman?s Stance: The Methodology of Causal Realism***by*Kevin Hoover**65 A NeoWicksellian in a New Classical World: The Methodology of Michael Woodford?s Interest and Prices***by*Kevin Hoover**533 True State Dependence In Monthly Welfare Participation:A Nonexperimental Analysis***by*Hilary W. Hoynes & Kenneth Y. Chay & Dean Hyslop**527 Why Do Institutional Plan Sponsors Hire and Fire their Investment Managers?***by*Christopher Knittel & Jeffrey Heisler & John J. Neumann & Scott Stewart**46 The Purchasing Power Parity Debate***by*Alan M. Taylor & Mark Taylor