IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cda/wpaper/333.html

Value-Capture in the Face of Known and Unknown Unknowns

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin Bryan
  • Michael Ryall
  • Burkhard C. Schipper

    (Department of Economics, University of California Davis)

Abstract

A large theoretical literature on value capture following Brandenburger and Stuart (1996) uses cooperative games under complete information to study how and why firms earn supernormal profits. However, firms often have different information, beliefs, or creative foresight. We extend value capture theory to incomplete information (“known unknowns”) or unawareness (“unknown unknowns”), and illustrate some conceptual issues with that extension. Using the case study of Cirque du Soleil, we show how an entrepreneurial firm can profit even when it does not contribute materially to value creation. In a case study of Apple iTunes, we show how value capture depends quantitatively on the beliefs of other firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Bryan & Michael Ryall & Burkhard C. Schipper, 2019. "Value-Capture in the Face of Known and Unknown Unknowns," Working Papers 333, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:333
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.dss.ucdavis.edu/files/RKTVYH4bfSZqVsrv9aovVCa8/unawcgames26.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glenn MacDonald & Michael D. Ryall, 2004. "How Do Value Creation and Competition Determine Whether a Firm Appropriates Value?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(10), pages 1319-1333, October.
    2. David Gill, 2008. "Strategic Disclosure of Intermediate Research Results," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 733-758, September.
    3. Rodolphe Durand & Robert M. Grant & Tammy L. Madsen & Joshua Gans & Michael D. Ryall, 2017. "Value capture theory: A strategic management review," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 17-41, January.
    4. Alvarez, Sharon A. & Barney, Jay B., 2004. "Organizing rent generation and appropriation: toward a theory of the entrepreneurial firm," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 621-635, September.
    5. Forges, Francoise & Minelli, Enrico & Vohra, Rajiv, 2002. "Incentives and the core of an exchange economy: a survey," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 1-41, September.
    6. Joshua S. Gans & Scott Stern, 2017. "Endogenous Appropriability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 317-321, May.
    7. MERTENS, Jean-François & ZAMIR, Shmuel, 1985. "Formulation of Bayesian analysis for games with incomplete information," LIDAM Reprints CORE 608, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    8. Burkhard Schipper, 2013. "Awareness-dependent subjective expected utility," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 42(3), pages 725-753, August.
    9. Joao Montez & Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda & Michael D. Ryall, 2018. "Competitive Intensity and Its Two-Sided Effect on the Boundaries of Firm Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 2716-2733, June.
    10. Françoise Forges & Roberto Serrano, 2013. "Cooperative Games With Incomplete Information: Some Open Problems," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(02), pages 1-17.
    11. Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik, 2005. "Default and Punishment in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 1-37, January.
    12. David Gaddis Ross, 2018. "Using cooperative game theory to contribute to strategy research," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(11), pages 2859-2876, November.
    13. repec:dau:papers:123456789/8158 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Oxley, Joanne E, 1997. "Appropriability Hazards and Governance in Strategic Alliances: A Transaction Cost Approach," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 387-409, October.
    15. Ernst-Ludwig Von Thadden & Xiaojian Zhao, 2012. "Incentives for Unaware Agents," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(3), pages 1151-1174.
    16. Michael D. Ryall, 2009. "Causal Ambiguity, Complexity, and Capability-Based Advantage," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 389-403, March.
    17. Michael D. Ryall, 2003. "Subjective Rationality, Self--Confirming Equilibrium, and Corporate Strategy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(7), pages 936-949, July.
    18. Farrell, Joseph & Saloner, Garth, 1986. "Installed Base and Compatibility: Innovation, Product Preannouncements, and Predation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 940-955, December.
    19. Rodolphe Durand & Robert M. Grant & Tammy L. Madsen & Rodolphe Durand & Robert M. Grant & Tammy L. Madsen, 2017. "The expanding domain of strategic management research and the quest for integration," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 4-16, January.
    20. Jay B. Barney, 1986. "Strategic Factor Markets: Expectations, Luck, and Business Strategy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(10), pages 1231-1241, October.
    21. Anoop Menon, 2018. "Bringing cognition into strategic interactions: Strategic mental models and open questions," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 168-192, January.
    22. Adam M. Brandenburger & Harborne W. Stuart, 1996. "Value‐based Business Strategy," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 5-24, March.
    23. Teppo Felin & Nicolai J. Foss, 2009. "Social Reality, the Boundaries of Self-Fulfilling Prophecy, and Economics," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(3), pages 654-668, June.
    24. Michael D. Ryall & Rachelle C. Sampson, 2017. "Contract Structure for Joint Production: Risk and Ambiguity Under Compensatory Damages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 1232-1253, April.
    25. Robert Wilson, 2005. "Information, efficiency, and the core of an economy," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Dionysius Glycopantis & Nicholas C. Yannelis (ed.), Differential Information Economies, pages 55-64, Springer.
    26. Heifetz, Aviad & Meier, Martin & Schipper, Burkhard C., 2006. "Interactive unawareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 78-94, September.
    27. John C. Harsanyi, 1967. "Games with Incomplete Information Played by "Bayesian" Players, I-III Part I. The Basic Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3), pages 159-182, November.
    28. Joseph Farrell & Garth Saloner, 1985. "Installed Base and Compatibility With Implications for Product Preannouncements," Working papers 385, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    29. Monderer, Dov & Samet, Dov, 1989. "Approximating common knowledge with common beliefs," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 170-190, June.
    30. Eddie Dekel & Barton L. Lipman & Aldo Rustichini, 1998. "Standard State-Space Models Preclude Unawareness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 159-174, January.
    31. Birger Wernerfelt, 1984. "A resource‐based view of the firm," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 171-180, April.
    32. S.A. Lippman & R.P. Rumelt, 1982. "Uncertain Imitability: An Analysis of Interfirm Differences in Efficiency under Competition," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 13(2), pages 418-438, Autumn.
    33. Kobayashi, Takao, 1980. "Equilibrium Contracts for Syndicates with Differential Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(7), pages 1635-1665, November.
    34. Steven A. Lippman & Richard P. Rumelt, 2003. "A bargaining perspective on resource advantage," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(11), pages 1069-1086, November.
    35. Michael D. Ryall & Olav Sorenson, 2007. "Brokers and Competitive Advantage," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(4), pages 566-583, April.
    36. Samet, Dov, 1990. "Ignoring ignorance and agreeing to disagree," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 190-207, October.
    37. John Geanakoplos, 1989. "Game Theory Without Partitions, and Applications to Speculation and Consensus," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 914, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    38. H. W. Stuart, 2017. "Contingent Contracts and Value Creation," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 815-827, July.
    39. Melissa A. Schilling, 2018. "The Cognitive Foundations of Visionary Strategy," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 335-342, March.
    40. Auster, Sarah, 2013. "Asymmetric awareness and moral hazard," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 503-521.
    41. Heifetz, Aviad & Meier, Martin & Schipper, Burkhard C., 2008. "A canonical model for interactive unawareness," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 304-324, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Timo Ehrig & Todd Zenger, 2024. "Competing with Theories: Using Awareness and Confidence to Secure Resources and Rents," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 416-432, December.
    3. Teppo Felin & Alfonso Gambardella & Todd Zenger, 2024. "Theory-Based Decisions: Foundations and Introduction," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 297-310, December.
    4. Sharique Hasan & Anuj Kumar, 2024. "Who Captures the Value from Organizational Ratings?: Evidence from Public Schools," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 248-266, September.
    5. Luca Gius, 2025. "Disagreement Predicts Startup Success: Evidence from Venture Competitions," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 93-108, June.
    6. Burkhard C. Schipper & Tina Danting Zhang, 2025. "Matching, Unanticipated Experiences, Divorce, Flirting, Rematching, Etc," Working Papers 371, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heifetz, Aviad & Meier, Martin & Schipper, Burkhard C., 2013. "Unawareness, beliefs, and speculative trade," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 100-121.
    2. Rodolphe Durand & Robert M. Grant & Tammy L. Madsen & Joshua Gans & Michael D. Ryall, 2017. "Value capture theory: A strategic management review," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 17-41, January.
    3. Áron Tóbiás, 2023. "Cognitive limits and preferences for information," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 46(1), pages 221-253, June.
    4. Fukuda, Satoshi, 2024. "On the axiomatization of an unawareness structure from knowing-whether operators," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Fukuda, Satoshi, 2021. "Unawareness without AU Introspection," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. Holliday, Wesley H., 2025. "A partial-state space model of unawareness," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    7. Gaia Belardinelli & Burkhard C. Schipper, 2023. "Implicit Knowledge in Unawareness Structures," Working Papers 360, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    8. Martin Meier & Burkhard Schipper, 2014. "Bayesian games with unawareness and unawareness perfection," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 56(2), pages 219-249, June.
    9. Pintér, Miklós & Udvari, Zsolt, 2011. "Generalized type spaces," MPRA Paper 34107, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Fukuda, Satoshi, 2019. "Epistemic foundations for set-algebraic representations of knowledge," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 73-82.
    11. Olivier Chatain & Denisa Mindruta, 2017. "Estimating Value Creation from Revealed Preferences: Application to Value-based Strategies," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(10), pages 1964-1985, October.
    12. Burkhard C. Schipper & Tina Danting Zhang, 2025. "Matching, Unanticipated Experiences, Divorce, Flirting, Rematching, Etc," Working Papers 371, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    13. Gossner, O. & Tsakas, E., 2010. "A reasoning approach to introspection and unawareness," Research Memorandum 006, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    14. Perea, Andrés, 2022. "Common belief in rationality in games with unawareness," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 11-30.
    15. Heifetz, Aviad & Meier, Martin & Schipper, Burkhard C., 2013. "Unawareness, beliefs, and speculative trade," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 100-121.
    16. Piermont, Evan, 2017. "Introspective unawareness and observable choice," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 134-152.
    17. J. W. Stoelhorst, 2023. "Value, rent, and profit: A stakeholder resource‐based theory," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(6), pages 1488-1513, June.
    18. Joachim Henkel & Alexander Hoffmann, 2019. "Value capture in hierarchically organized value chains," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 260-279, April.
    19. Satoshi Fukuda, 2025. "Are the players in an interactive belief model meta-certain of the model itself?," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 80(4), pages 1267-1295, December.
    20. Satoshi Fukuda, 2024. "On the consistency among prior, posteriors, and information sets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 78(2), pages 521-565, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • C71 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Cooperative Games

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:333. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Letters and Science IT Services Unit (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/educdus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.