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Unawareness, beliefs, and speculative trade

  • Heifetz, Aviad
  • Meier, Martin
  • Schipper, Burkhard C.

We define a generalized state-space model with interactive unawareness and probabilistic beliefs. Such models are desirable for potential applications of asymmetric unawareness. Applying our unawareness belief structures, we show that the common prior assumption is too weak to rule out speculative trade in all states. Yet, we prove a generalized “No-speculative-trade” theorem according to which there cannot be common certainty of strict preference to trade. Moreover, we prove a generalization of the “No-agreeing-to-disagree” theorem.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Games and Economic Behavior.

Volume (Year): 77 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 100-121

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Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:77:y:2013:i:1:p:100-121
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622836

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  1. Grant, Simon & Quiggin, John, 2009. "Inductive Reasoning About Unawareness," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 151188, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
  2. Heifetz, Aviad & Meier, Martin & Schipper, Burkhard C, 2011. "Prudent rationalizability in generalized extensive-form games," MPRA Paper 30220, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Halpern, Joseph Y. & Rego, Leandro Chaves, 2008. "Interactive unawareness revisited," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 232-262, January.
  4. Jing Li, 2008. "A Note on Unawareness and Zero Probability," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-022, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
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  21. Feinberg, Yossi, 2000. "Characterizing Common Priors in the Form of Posteriors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 127-179, April.
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