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Inductive reasoning about unawareness

Author

Listed:
  • Simon Grant

    (Department of Economics, Rice University)

  • John Quiggin

    (Department of Economics, University of Queensland)

Abstract

We develop a model of games with awareness that allows for differential levels of awareness. We show that, for the standard modal logical interpretations of belief and awareness, a player cannot believe there exist propositions of which he is unaware. Nevertheless, we argue that a boundedly rational individual may regard the possibility that there exist propositions of which she is unaware as being supported by inductive reasoning, based on past experience and consideration of the limited awareness of others. In this paper, we provide a formal representation of inductive reasoning in the context of a dynamic game with awareness. We show that, given differential awareness over time and between players, individuals can derive inductive support for propositions expressing their own unawareness.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Grant & John Quiggin, 2009. "Inductive reasoning about unawareness," Risk & Uncertainty Working Papers WPR09_1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland.
    • Handle: RePEc:rsm:riskun:r09_1
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    File URL: http://www.uq.edu.au/rsmg/WP/WPR09_1.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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