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Unawareness, Beliefs and Speculative Trade

  • Heifetz, Aviad
  • Meier, Martin
  • Schipper, Burkhard C

We define a generalized state-space model with interactive unawareness and probabilistic beliefs. Such models are desirable for potential applications of asymmetric unawareness. We compare unawareness with probability zero belief. Applying our unawareness belief structures, we show that the common prior assumption is too weak to rule out speculative trade in all states. Yet, we prove a generalized "No-trade" theorem according to which there can not be common certainty of strict preference to trade. Moreover, we show a generalization of the "No-agreeing-to-disagree" theorem.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18437.

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Date of creation: 06 Nov 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18437
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  1. Aviad Heifetz & Martin Meier & Burkhard Schipper, 2011. "Prudent Rationalizability in Generalized Extensive-Form Games," Working Papers 114, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  2. Monderer, Dov & Samet, Dov, 1989. "Approximating common knowledge with common beliefs," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 170-190, June.
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  7. Heifetz, Aviad & Meier, Martin & Schipper, Burkhard C., 2008. "A canonical model for interactive unawareness," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 304-324, January.
  8. Heifetz, Aviad, 2006. "The positive foundation of the common prior assumption," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 105-120, July.
  9. Eddie Dekel & Barton L. Lipman & Aldo Rustichini, 1998. "Standard State-Space Models Preclude Unawareness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 159-174, January.
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  11. Aviad Heifetz & Martin Meier & Burkhard Schipper, 2011. "Dynamic unawareness and rationalizable behavior," Working Papers 113, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  12. Heifetz, Aviad & Meier, Martin & Schipper, Burkhard C., 2006. "Interactive unawareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 78-94, September.
  13. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2010. "Information Acquisition and Under-Diversification," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 779-805.
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  20. repec:pit:wpaper:378 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Galanis, Spyros, 2007. "Unawareness of theorems," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 51816, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  22. Grant, Simon & Quiggin, John, 2012. "Inductive Reasoning About Unawareness," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 151202, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
  23. D. Samet, 1987. "Ignoring Ignorance and Agreeing to Disagree," Discussion Papers 749, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
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  25. Thomas Leonard, 2008. "Richard H. Thaler, Cass R. Sunstein, Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 356-360, December.
  26. Harborne W. Stuart Jr. & Hong Hu, 2002. "An epistemic analysis of the Harsanyi transformation," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 30(4), pages 517-525.
  27. Halpern, Joseph Y. & Rego, Leandro Chaves, 2008. "Interactive unawareness revisited," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 232-262, January.
  28. Heinsalu, Sander, 2012. "Equivalence of the information structure with unawareness to the logic of awareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(6), pages 2453-2468.
  29. Heinsalu, Sander, 2014. "Universal type structures with unawareness," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 255-266.
  30. Ewerhart, Christian, 2001. "Heterogeneous Awareness and the Possibility of Agreement," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 01-30, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  31. Morris, Stephen, 1994. "Trade with Heterogeneous Prior Beliefs and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1327-47, November.
  32. Jing Li, 2008. "A Note on Unawareness and Zero Probability," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-022, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
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  34. Galanis, Spyros, 2013. "Trade and the value of information under unawareness," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 1313, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  35. Spyros Galanis, 2011. "Syntactic foundations for unawareness of theorems," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 71(4), pages 593-614, October.
  36. Li, Jing, 2009. "Information structures with unawareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 977-993, May.
  37. John Geanakoplos, 1989. "Game Theory Without Partitions, and Applications to Speculation and Consensus," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 914, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  38. Kim-Sau Chung & Oliver Board, 2007. "Object-Based Unawareness," Working Papers 2007-2, University of Minnesota, Department of Economics, revised 24 Aug 2007.
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