Least Squares Model Averaging
This paper considers the problem of selection of weights for averaging across least squares estimates obtained from a set of models. Existing model average methods are based on exponential Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) weights. In distinction, this paper proposes selecting the weights by minimizing a Mallows criterion, the latter an estimate of the average squared error from the model average fit. We show that our new Mallows model average (MMA) estimator is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the lowest possible squared error in a class of discrete model average estimators. In a simulation experiment we show that the MMA estimator compares favorably with those based on AIC and BIC weights. The proof of the main result is an application of the work of Li (1987). Copyright The Econometric Society 2007.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 75 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (07)
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: 1 212 998 3820|
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: https://www.econometricsociety.org/publications/econometrica/access/ordering-back-issues Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hall, Alastair R. & Inoue, Atsushi & Jana, Kalidas & Shin, Changmock, 2007. "Information in generalized method of moments estimation and entropy-based moment selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 488-512, June.
- Leeb, Hannes & Pötscher, Benedikt M., 2005.
"Can One Estimate the Unconditional Distribution of Post-Model-Selection Estimators ?,"
72, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Leeb, Hannes & P tscher, Benedikt M., 2008. "Can One Estimate The Unconditional Distribution Of Post-Model-Selection Estimators?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 338-376, April.
- Hannes Leeb & Benedikt M. Potscher, 2003. "Can One Estimate the Conditional Distribution of Post-Model-Selection Estimators?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1444, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Hannes Leeb & Benedikt M. Poetscher, 2000.
"The Finite-Sample Distribution of Post-Model-Selection Estimators, and Uniform Versus Non-Uniform Approximations,"
- Leeb, Hannes & P tscher, Benedikt M., 2003. "The Finite-Sample Distribution Of Post-Model-Selection Estimators And Uniform Versus Nonuniform Approximations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(01), pages 100-142, February.
- Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000.
"Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach,"
OECD Economics Department Working Papers
266, OECD Publishing.
- Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
- Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," NBER Working Papers 7750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fan J. & Li R., 2001. "Variable Selection via Nonconcave Penalized Likelihood and its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1348-1360, December.
- Yang Y., 2001. "Adaptive Regression by Mixing," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 574-588, June.
- Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lu, Biao, 2001. "Consistent model and moment selection procedures for GMM estimation with application to dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 123-164, March.
- Leeb, Hannes & P tscher, Benedikt M., 2005. "Model Selection And Inference: Facts And Fiction," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 21-59, February.
- Newey, Whitney K., 1997. "Convergence rates and asymptotic normality for series estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 147-168, July.
- Yuan, Zheng & Yang, Yuhong, 2005. "Combining Linear Regression Models: When and How?," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1202-1214, December.
- Hong, Han & Preston, Bruce & Shum, Matthew, 2003. "Generalized Empirical Likelihood Based Model Selection Criteria For Moment Condition Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 923-943, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:75:y:2007:i:4:p:1175-1189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.