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Using Invalid Instruments on Purpose: Focused Moment Selection and Averaging for GMM

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  • Francis J. DiTraglia

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

In finite samples, the use of a slightly endogenous but highly relevant instrument can reduce mean-squared error (MSE). Building on this observation, I propose a moment selection criterion for GMM in which moment conditions are chosen based on the MSE of their associated estimators rather than their validity: the focused moment selection criterion (FMSC). I then show how the framework used to derive the FMSC can address the problem of inference post-moment selection. Treating post-selection estimators as a special case of moment-averaging, in which estimators based on different moment sets are given data-dependent weights, I propose a simulation-based procedure to construct valid confidence intervals for a variety of formal and informal moment-selection procedures. Both the FMSC and confidence interval procedure perform well in simulations. I conclude with an empirical example examining the effect of instrument selection on the estimated relationship between malaria transmission and per-capita income.

Suggested Citation

  • Francis J. DiTraglia, 2011. "Using Invalid Instruments on Purpose: Focused Moment Selection and Averaging for GMM," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-037, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 04 Aug 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:14-037
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    Cited by:

    1. Toru Kitagawa & Chris Muris, 2015. "Model averaging in semiparametric estimation of treatment effects," CeMMAP working papers CWP46/15, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Seojeong Lee, 2015. "A Consistent Variance Estimator for 2SLS When Instruments Identify Different LATEs," Discussion Papers 2015-01, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    3. Liu, Chu-An, 2012. "A plug-in averaging estimator for regressions with heteroskedastic errors," MPRA Paper 41414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Cheng, Xu & Liao, Zhipeng, 2015. "Select the valid and relevant moments: An information-based LASSO for GMM with many moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 443-464.
    5. Lee, Seojeong, 2014. "Asymptotic refinements of a misspecification-robust bootstrap for generalized method of moments estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 398-413.
    6. Leeb, Hannes & Pötscher, Benedikt M., 2012. "Testing in the Presence of Nuisance Parameters: Some Comments on Tests Post-Model-Selection and Random Critical Values," MPRA Paper 41459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Liu, Chu-An, 2015. "Distribution theory of the least squares averaging estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 142-159.
    8. Xu Cheng & Zhipeng Liao & Ruoyao Shi, 2013. "Uniform Asymptotic Risk of Averaging GMM Estimator Robust to Misspecification, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 15-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 25 Mar 2015.
    9. Toru Kitagawa & Chris Muris, 2013. "Covariate selection and model averaging in semiparametric estimation of treatment effects," CeMMAP working papers CWP61/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    10. repec:taf:emetrv:v:36:y:2017:i:6-9:p:840-852 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Chu‐An Liu & Biing‐Shen Kuo, 2016. "Model averaging in predictive regressions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 19(2), pages 203-231, June.
    12. Hansen, Bruce E., 2016. "Efficient shrinkage in parametric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 115-132.
    13. Shou-Yung Yin & Chu-An Liu & Chang-Ching Lin, 2016. "Focused Information Criterion and Model Averaging for Large Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 16-A016, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    14. Ruoyao Shi & Zhipeng Liao, 2018. "An Averaging GMM Estimator Robust to Misspecification," Working Papers 201803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    15. Xu Cheng & Zhipeng Liao, 2012. "Select the Valid and Relevant Moments: A One-Step Procedure for GMM with Many Moments," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-045, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Moment selection; GMM estimation; Model averaging; Focused Information Criterion; Post-selection estimators;

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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