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Choosing instrumental variables in conditional moment restriction models

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  • Donald, Stephen G.
  • Imbens, Guido W.
  • Newey, Whitney K.

Abstract

Properties of GMM estimators are sensitive to the choice of instrument. Using many instruments leads to high asymptotic asymptotic efficiency but can cause high bias and/or variance in small samples. In this paper we develop and implement asymptotic mean square error (MSE) based criteria for instrument selection in estimation of conditional moment restriction models. The models we consider include various nonlinear simultaneous equations models with unknown heteroskedasticity. We develop moment selection criteria for the familiar two-step optimal GMM estimator (GMM), a bias corrected version, and generalized empirical likelihood estimators (GEL), that include the continuous updating estimator (CUE) as a special case. We also find that the CUE has lower higher-order variance than the bias-corrected GMM estimator, and that the higher-order efficiency of other GEL estimators depends on conditional kurtosis of the moments.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald, Stephen G. & Imbens, Guido W. & Newey, Whitney K., 2009. "Choosing instrumental variables in conditional moment restriction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(1), pages 28-36, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:152:y:2009:i:1:p:28-36
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Manuel A. Domínguez & Ignacio N. Lobato, 2004. "Consistent Estimation of Models Defined by Conditional Moment Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1601-1615, September.
    2. Whitney K. Newey & Richard J. Smith, 2004. "Higher Order Properties of Gmm and Generalized Empirical Likelihood Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 219-255, January.
    3. Donald, Stephen G & Newey, Whitney K, 2001. "Choosing the Number of Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1161-1191, September.
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    6. Guido W. Imbens & Richard H. Spady & Phillip Johnson, 1998. "Information Theoretic Approaches to Inference in Moment Condition Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 333-358, March.
    7. Koenker, Roger & Machado, José A.F. & Skeels, Christopher L. & Welsh, Alan H., 1994. "Momentary Lapses: Moment Expansions and the Robustness of Minimum Distance Estimation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 172-197, March.
    8. Yuichi Kitamura & Michael Stutzer, 1997. "An Information-Theoretic Alternative to Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 861-874, July.
    9. Donald W. K. Andrews, 1999. "Consistent Moment Selection Procedures for Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 543-564, May.
    10. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Yaron, Amir, 1996. "Finite-Sample Properties of Some Alternative GMM Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 262-280, July.
    11. Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman, 2002. "A New Specification Test for the Validity of Instrumental Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 163-189, January.
    12. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
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    14. Donald, Stephen G. & Imbens, Guido W. & Newey, Whitney K., 2003. "Empirical likelihood estimation and consistent tests with conditional moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 55-93, November.
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