# National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

# NBER Technical Working Papers

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Phone: 617-868-3900

Web page: http://www.nber.org

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### 2007

**0345 Computing Stochastic Dynamic Economic Models with a Large Number of State Variables: A Description and Application of a Smolyak-Collocation Method***by*Benjamin Malin & Dirk Krueger & Felix Kubler**0344 Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors***by*A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller**0343 Do Instrumental Variables Belong in Propensity Scores?***by*Jay Bhattacharya & William B. Vogt**0342 Rank-1/2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents***by*Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov**0341 Deterministic and Stochastic Prisoner's Dilemma Games: Experiments in Interdependent Security***by*Howard Kunreuther & Gabriel Silvasi & Eric T. Bradlow & Dylan Small**0340 The Identification and Economic Content of Ordered Choice Models with Stochastic Thresholds***by*Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman & Salvador Navarro**0339 Unconditional Quantile Regressions***by*Sergio Firpo & Nicole M. Fortin & Thomas Lemieux**0338 Instrumental Variables Estimation of Heteroskedastic Linear Models Using All Lags of Instruments***by*Kenneth D. West & Ka-fu Wong & Stanislav Anatolyev**0337 Regression Discontinuity Designs: A Guide to Practice***by*Guido Imbens & Thomas Lemieux**0336 Internal Increasing Returns to Scale and Economic Growth***by*John A. List & Haiwen Zhou**0335 Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program***by*Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller**0334 Manipulation of the Running Variable in the Regression Discontinuity Design: A Density Test***by*Justin McCrary

### 2006

**0333 Using Randomization in Development Economics Research: A Toolkit***by*Esther Duflo & Rachel Glennerster & Michael Kremer**0332 DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment***by*Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni**0331 Vector Multiplicative Error Models: Representation and Inference***by*Fabrizio Cipollini & Robert F. Engle & Giampiero M. Gallo**0330 Moving the Goalposts: Addressing Limited Overlap in the Estimation of Average Treatment Effects by Changing the Estimand***by*Richard K. Crump & V. Joseph Hotz & Guido W. Imbens & Oscar A. Mitnik**0329 Researcher Incentives and Empirical Methods***by*Edward L. Glaeser**0328 Non-response in the American Time Use Survey: Who Is Missing from the Data and How Much Does It Matter?***by*Katharine G. Abraham & Aaron Maitland & Suzanne M. Bianchi**0327 Robust Inference with Multi-way Clustering***by*A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller**0326 Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models***by*Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark**0325 On the Failure of the Bootstrap for Matching Estimators***by*Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens**0324 Nonparametric Tests for Treatment Effect Heterogeneity***by*Richard K. Crump & V. Joseph Hotz & Guido W. Imbens & Oscar A. Mitnik**0323 Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression***by*James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson**0322 Regression Discontinuity Inference with Specification Error***by*David S. Lee & David Card**0321 Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach***by*Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez**0320 Semiparametric Estimation of a Dynamic Game of Incomplete Information***by*Patrick Bajari & Han Hong

### 2005

**0319 Edgeworth Expansions for Realized Volatility and Related Estimators***by*Lan Zhang & Per A. Mykland & Yacine Ait-Sahalia**0318 Solving General Equilibrium Models with Incomplete Markets and Many Assets***by*Martin D. D. Evans & Viktoria Hnatkovska**0317 Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning***by*George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Noah Williams**0316 Dynamic Discrete Choice and Dynamic Treatment Effects***by*James J. Heckman & Salvador Navarro**0315 Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models***by*Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio & Manuel Santos**0314 Instrumental Variables Methods in Experimental Criminological Research: What, Why, and How?***by*Joshua Angrist**0313 Inference with Weak Instruments***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & James H. Stock**0312 Inference with "Difference in Differences" with a Small Number of Policy Changes***by*Timothy Conley & Christopher Taber**0311 Two-Sample Instrumental Variables Estimators***by*Atsushi Inoue & Gary Solon**0310 A Portmanteau Test for Serially Correlated Errors in Fixed Effects Models***by*Atsushi Inoue & Gary Solon**0309 The Method of Endogenous Gridpoints for Solving Dynamic Stochastic Optimization Problems***by*Christopher D. Carroll**0308 A, B, C's (and D)'s for Understanding VARs***by*Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Thomas J. Sargent**0307 Threshold Crossing Models and Bounds on Treatment Effects: A Nonparametric Analysis***by*Azeem Shaikh & Edward Vytlacil**0306 Structural Equations, Treatment Effects and Econometric Policy Evaluation***by*James J. Heckman & Edward Vytlacil**0305 Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference***by*Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West**0304 Avoiding the Curse of Dimensionality in Dynamic Stochastic Games***by*Ulrich Doraszelski & Kenneth L. Judd

### 2004

**0303 Optimal Inference in Regression Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors***by*Michael Jansson & Marcelo J. Moreira**0302 Bootstrap and Higher-Order Expansion Validity When Instruments May Be Weak***by*Marcelo J. Moreira & Jack R. Porter & Gustavo A. Suarez**0301 Identification and Estimation of Discrete Games of Complete Information***by*Patrick Bajari & Han Hong & Stephen Ryan**0300 Volatility Comovement: A Multifrequency Approach***by*Laurent E. Calvet & Adlai J. Fisher & Samuel B. Thompson**0299 Optimal Invariant Similar Tests for Instrumental Variables Regression***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Marcelo Moreira & James H. Stock**0298 The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics***by*Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul**0297 On the Relationship Between Determinate and MSV Solutions in Linear RE Models***by*Bennett McCallum**0296 A Monte Carlo Study of Growth Regressions***by*William R. Hauk & Romain Wacziarg

### 2003

**0295 The Role of Randomized Field Trials in Social Science Research: A Perspective from Evaluations of Reforms of Social Welfare Programs***by*Robert A. Moffitt**0294 Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects under Exogeneity: A Review***by*Guido W. Imbens**0293 Generalized Modeling Approaches to Risk Adjustment of Skewed Outcomes Data***by*Willard G. Manning & Anirban Basu & John Mullahy**0292 Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Cointegrating Regression***by*Nelson C. Mark & Masao Ogaki & Donggyu Sul**0291 Generalized Moments Estimation for Panel Data***by*Viliam Druska & William C. Horrace**0290 The (Interesting) Dynamic Properties of the Neoclassical Growth Model with CES Production***by*Kent Smetters**0289 Iatrogenic Specification Error: A Cautionary Tale of Cleaning Data***by*Christopher R. Bollinger & Amitabh Chandra**0288 Multinomial Choice with Social Interactions***by*William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf

### 2002

**0287 Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-Run Money Demand***by*Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul**0286 Estimating Affine Multifactor Term Structure Models Using Closed-Form Likelihood Expansions***by*Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Robert Kimmel**0285 Identification and Estimation of Triangular Simultaneous Equations Models Without Additivity***by*Guido W. Imbens & Whitney K. Newey**0284 Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression***by*James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo**0283 Simple and Bias-Corrected Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects***by*Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens**0282 Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function***by*Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe**0281 Affine Processes and Application in Finance***by*D. Duffie & D. Filipovic & W. Schachermayer**0280 Identification and Inference in Nonlinear Difference-In-Differences Models***by*Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens**0279 Parametric and Nonparametric Volatility Measurement***by*Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold**0278 Econometric Methods for Endogenously Sampled Time Series: The Case of Commodity Price Speculation in the Steel Market***by*George Hall & John Rust**0277 Trimming for Bounds on Treatment Effects with Missing Outcomes***by*David S. Lee**0276 The Effects of Random and Discrete Sampling When Estimating Continuous-Time Diffusions***by*Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Per A. Mykland

### 2001

**0275 Using Weights to Adjust for Sample Selection When Auxiliary Information is Available***by*Aviv Nevo**0274 Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Diffusions with an Application to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Incomplete Markets***by*Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara**0273 A New Use of Importance Sampling to Reduce Computational Burden in Simulation Estimation***by*Daniel A. Ackerberg**0272 Demand Estimation With Heterogeneous Consumers and Unobserved Product Characteristics: A Hedonic Approach***by*Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard**0271 Estimating Hedonic Models: Implications of the Theory***by*Helen Tauchen & Ann Dryden Witte**0270 The Bias of the RSR Estimator and the Accuracy of Some Alternatives***by*William N. Goetzmann & Liang Peng**0269 Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors***by*Thomas Knox & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson**0268 A Graphical Analysis of Some Basic Results in Social Choice***by*Estelle Cantillon**0267 Panel Data Estimators for Nonseparable Models with Endogenous Regressors***by*Joseph G. Altonji & Rosa L. Matzkin

### 2000

**0266 The Conventional Treatment of Seasonality in Business Cycle Analysis: Does it Create Distortions?***by*Lawrence J. Christiano & Richard M. Todd**0265 Time Use and Population Representation in the Sloan Study of Adolescents***by*Casey B. Mulligan & Barbara Schneider & Rurtin Wolfe**0264 Long Memory and Regime Switching***by*Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue**0263 Using Studies of Treatment Response to Inform Treatment Choice in Heterogeneous Populations***by*Charles F. Manski**0262 Treatment Effects for Discrete Outcomes when Responses to Treatment Vary Among Observationally Identical Persons: An Application to Norwegian ..***by*Arild Aakvik & James J. Heckman & Edward J. Vytlacil**0261 Bootstrap Tests for the Effect of a Treatment on the Distribution of an Outcome Variable***by*Alberto Abadie**0260 Semiparametric Estimation of Instrumental Variable Models for Causal Effects***by*Alberto Abadie**0259 Instrumental Variables, Selection Models, and Tight Bounds on the Average Treatment Effect***by*James J. Heckman & Edward J. Vytlacil**0258 Interactions-Based Models***by*William Brock & Steven N. Durlauf**0257 Bias from Classical and Other Forms of Measurement Error***by*Dean R. Hyslop & Guido W. Imbens**0256 Encompassing Tests When No Model Is Encompassing***by*Kenneth D. West**0255 Robust Covariance Matrix Estimation with Data-Dependent VAR Prewhitening Order***by*Wouter J. den Haan & Andrew T. Levin**0254 Direct Estimation of Policy Impacts***by*Hidehiko Ichimura & Christopher R. Taber**0253 Estimating Euler Equations***by*Orazio P. Attanasio & Hamish Low**0252 Local Instrumental Variables***by*James J. Heckman & Edward J. Vytlacil**0251 Efficient Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Using the Estimated Propensity Score***by*Keisuke Hirano & Guido W. Imbens & Geert Ridder**0250 External Treatment Effects and Program Implementation Bias***by*Tomas J. Philipson**0249 On Optimal Instrumental Variables Estimation of Stationary Time Series Models***by*Kenneth D. West**0248 Estimation of Limited-Dependent Variable Models with Dummy Endogenous Regressors: Simple Strategies for Empirical Practice***by*Joshua D. Angrist

### 1999

**0247 A Note on Longitudinally Matching Current Population Survey (CPS) Respondents***by*Brigitte C. Madrian & Lars John Lefgren**0246 Estimating Log Models: To Transform or Not to Transform?***by*Willard G. Manning & John Mullahy**0245 Interaction Effects and Difference-in-Difference Estimation in Loglinear Models***by*John Mullahy**0244 News About News: Information Arrival and Irreversible Investment***by*Allan Drazen & Plutarchos Sakellaris**0243 Environmental Policy and Firm Behavior: Abatement Investment and Location Decisions Under Uncertainty and Irreversibility***by*Anastasios Xepapadeas**0242 Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations: With Application to Randomized Experiments***by*Charles F. Manski**0241 When to Control for Covariates? Panel-Asymptotic Results for Estimates of Treatment Effects***by*Joshua D. Angrist & Jinyong Hahn**0240 Predictive Regressions***by*Robert F. Stambaugh**0239 Toll Competition Among Congested Roads***by*Eduardo Engel & Ronald Fischer & Alexander Galetovic**0238 Predicting the Efficacy of Future Training Programs Using Past Experiences***by*V. Joseph Hotz & Guido W. Imbens & Julie H. Mortimer**0237 The Role of the Propensity Score in Estimating Dose-Response Functions***by*Guido W. Imbens**0236 Approximation Bias in Linearized Euler Equations***by*Sydney Ludvigson & Christina H. Paxson

### 1998

**0235 Sorting Out Sorts***by*Jonathan B. Berk**0234 A Simple Framework for Nonparametric Specification Testing***by*Glenn Ellison & Sara Fisher Ellison**0233 An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version***by*Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford**0232 Solutions to Linear Rational Expectations Models: A Compact Exposition***by*Bennett T. McCallum**0231 Efficient Intertemporal Allocations with Recursive Utility***by*Bernard Dumas & Raman Uppal & Tan Wang**0230 Combining Panel Data Sets with Attrition and Refreshment Samples***by*Keisuke Hirano & Guido W. Imbens & Geert Ridder & Donald B. Rebin**0229 Instrumental Variables Estimation of Quantile Treatment Effects***by*Alberto Abadie & Joshua D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens**0228 Much Ado About Two: Reconsidering Retransformation and the Two-Part Model in Health Economics***by*John Mullahy**0227 Net Health Benefits: A New Framework for the Analysis of Uncertainty in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis***by*Aaron A. Stinnett & John Mullahy**0226 Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability***by*Kenneth D. West & Michael W. McCracken**0225 Solving Dynamic Equilibrium Models by a Method of Undetermined Coefficients***by*Lawrence J. Christiano**0224 Monotone Instrumental Variables with an Application to the Returns to Schooling***by*Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper**0223 Overidentification Tests with Grouped Data***by*Caroline Hoxby & M. Daniele Paserman**0222 Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-Form Approach***by*Yacine Ait-Sahalia**0221 A Research Assistant's Guide to Random Coefficients Discrete Choice Models of Demand***by*Aviv Nevo**0220 An Analysis of Sample Attrition in Panel Data: The Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics***by*John Fitzgerald & Peter Gottschalk & Robert Moffitt**0219 Anchoring Effects in the HRS: Experimental and Nonexperimental Evidence***by*Michael D. Hurd

### 1997

**0218 Algorithms for Solving Dynamic Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints***by*Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D.M. Fisher**0217 Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting***by*Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold**0216 Horizon Length and Portfolio Risk***by*Christian Gollier & Richard J. Zeckhauser**0215 Evaluating Density Forecasts***by*Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay**0214 Moment Estimation with Attrition***by*John M. Abowd & Bruno Crepon & Francis Kramarz**0213 Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications***by*Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian**0212 An Efficient Generalized Discrete-Time Approach to Poisson-Gaussian Bond Option Pricing in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model***by*Sanjiv Ranjan Das**0211 Time-to-Build and Cycles***by*Patrick K. Asea & Paul J. Zak**0210 Observational Agency and Supply-Side Econometrics***by*Tomas Philipson**0209 The Significance of the Market Portfolio***by*Stefano Athanasoulis & Robert J. Shiller**0208 Computational Economics and Economic Theory: Substitutes or Complements***by*Kenneth L. Judd**0207 Solving Large Scale Rational Expectations Models***by*Jess Gaspar & Kenneth L. Judd**0199 An Introduction to Applicable Game Theory***by*Robert Gibbons**0086 Efficient Estimation of Linear Asset Pricing Models with Moving-Average Errors***by*Lars Peter Hansen & Kenneth J. Singleton

### 1996

**0206 Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP***by*Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn**0205 The NBER Manufacturing Productivity Database***by*Eric J. Bartelsman & Wayne Gray**0204 Hierarchical Bayes Models with Many Instrumental Variables***by*Gary Chamberlain & Guido W. Imbens**0203 Statistical Mechanics Approaches to Socioeconomic Behavior***by*Steven N. Durlauf**0202 Imposing Moment Restrictions from Auxiliary Data by Weighting***by*Guido W. Imbens & Judith K. Hellerstein**0201 Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model***by*James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson**0200 Nonparametric Applications of Bayesian Inference***by*Gary Chamberlain & Guido W. Imbens**0198 Asymptotics for GMM Estimators with Weak Instruments***by*James H. Stock & Jonathan Wright**0197 A Practitioner's Guide to Robust Covariance Matrix Estimation***by*Wouter J. Den Haan & Andrew T. Levin**0196 Generating Non-Standard Multivariate Distributions with an Application to Mismeasurement in the CPI***by*Matthew D. Shapiro & David W. Wilcox**0195 Inferences from Parametric and Non-Parametric Covariance Matrix Estimation Procedures***by*Wouter J. Den Haan & Andrew Levin**0194 Exact Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Observation-Driven Econometric Models***by*Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann**0193 Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure***by*John Shea**0192 Forecast Evaluation and Combination***by*Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez**0191 On Biases in Tests of the Expecations Hypothesis of the Term Structure Of Interest Rates***by*Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall**0190 Existence of Equilibrium and Stratification in Local and Hierarchical Tiebout Economies with Property Taxes and Voting***by*Thomas J. Nechyba**0187 Selection Bias Adjustment in Treatment-Effect Models as a Method of Aggregation***by*Robert A. Moffitt**0138 From Each According to His Surplus: Equi-Proportionate Sharing of Commodity Tax Burdens***by*James R. Hines, Jr. & John C. Hlinko & Theodore J.F. Lubke**0123 Specification Testing in Panel Data With Instrumental Variables***by*Gilbert E. Metcalf

### 1995

**0189 On the Validity of Using Census Geocode Characteristics to Proxy Individual Socioeconomic Characteristics***by*Arline T. Geronimus & John Bound & Lisa J. Neidert**0188 A CES Indirect Production Function***by*Boyan Jovanovic**0186 Information Theoretic Approaches to Inference in Moment Condition Models***by*Guido W. Imbens & Phillip Johnson & Richard H. Spady**0185 Instrumental Variables: A Cautionary Tale***by*James J. Heckman**0184 Randomization as an Instrumental Variable***by*James J. Heckman**0183 Another Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator***by*Kenneth D. West**0182 Refining Estimates of Marital Status Differences in Mortality at Older Ages***by*Sanders Korenman & Noreen Goldman & Haishan Fu**0181 Conditioning on the Probability of Selection to Control Selection Bias***by*Joshua D. Angrist**0180 A La Recherche des Moments Perdus: Covariance Models for Unbalanced Panels with Endogenous Death***by*John M. Abowd & Bruno Crepon & Francis Kramarz & Alain Trognon**0179 One Day in June, 1994: A Study of the Working of Reuters 2000-2 Electronic Foreign Exchange Trading System***by*Charles Goodhart & Takatoshi Ito & Richard Payne**0178 Non-Parametric Demand Analysis with an Application to the Demand for Fish***by*Joshua D. Angrist & Kathryn Graddy & Guido W. Imbens**0177 Small Sample Properties of GMM for Business Cycle Analysis***by*Lawrence J. Christiano & Wouter J. Den Haan**0176 A Comparison of Alternative Instruments Variables Estimators of a Dynamic Linear Model***by*Kenneth D. West & David W. Wilcox**0175 Investment Under Alternative Return Assumptions: Comparing Random Walks and Mean Reversion***by*Gilbert E. Metcalf & Kevin A. Hassett**0174 Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: A Framework for Comparing Models and Data***by*Francis X. Diebold & Lee E. Ohanian & Jeremy Berkowitz**0173 Measuring Volatility Dynamics***by*Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez**0172 Jackknife Instrumental Variables Estimation***by*Joshua D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens & Alan Krueger**0150 Split Sample Instrumental Variables***by*Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger**0144 Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation***by*Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey**0127 Average Causal Response with Variable Treatment Intensity***by*Joshua D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens**0120 Evaluating Risky Consumption Paths: The Role of Intertemporal Substitutability***by*Maurice Obstfeld**0118 Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects***by*Joshua D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens

### 1994

**0171 Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known***by*Michael T. K. Horvath & Mark W. Watson**0170 Natural and Quasi- Experiments in Economics***by*Bruce D. Meyer**0169 Comparing Predictive Accuracy***by*Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano**0168 Estimating Multiple-Discrete Choice Models: An Application to Computeri-zzation Returns***by*Igal Hendel**0167 Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss***by*Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold**0166 Accounting for Dropouts in Evaluations of Social Experiments***by*James Heckman & Jeffrey Smith & Christopher Taber**0165 Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors***by*Eugene Canjels & Mark W. Watson**0164 Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations***by*James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson**0163 Continuous Record Asymptotics for Rolling Sample Variance Estimators***by*Dean P. Foster & Daniel B. Nelson**0162 Asymptotic Filtering Theory for Multivariate ARCH Models***by*Daniel B. Nelson**0161 Asymptotically Optimal Smoothing with ARCH Models***by*Daniel B. Nelson**0160 Reported Income in the NLSY: Consistency Checks and Methods for Cleaningthe Data***by*Nancy Cole & Janet Currie**0159 Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis***by*Andrew B. Bernard & Steven N. Durlauf**0158 Biases in Twin Estimates of the Return to Schooling: A Note on Recent Research***by*David Neumark**0157 Econometric Mixture Models and More General Models for Unobservables in Duration Analysis***by*James J. Heckman & Christopher R. Taber**0156 Small Sample Bias in GMM Estimation of Covariance Structures***by*Joseph G. Altonji & Lewis M. Segal**0155 Small Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Based Wald Tests***by*Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum**0154 When Are Anonymous Congestion Charges Consistent with Marginal Cost Pricing?***by*Richard Arnott & Marvin Kraus