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Vector Multiplicative Error Models: Representation and Inference

  • Fabrizio Cipollini
  • Robert F. Engle
  • Giampiero M. Gallo

The Multiplicative Error Model introduced by Engle (2002) for positive valued processes is specified as the product of a (conditionally autoregressive) scale factor and an innovation process with positive support. In this paper we propose a multi-variate extension of such a model, by taking into consideration the possibility that the vector innovation process be contemporaneously correlated. The estimation procedure is hindered by the lack of probability density functions for multivariate positive valued random variables. We suggest the use of copulafunctions and of estimating equations to jointly estimate the parameters of the scale factors and of the correlations of the innovation processes. Empirical applications on volatility indicators are used to illustrate the gains over the equation by equation procedure.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0331.

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Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0331
Note: AP TWP
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  1. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Engle, Robert F. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2006. "A multiple indicators model for volatility using intra-daily data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 3-27.
  3. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  4. Manganelli, Simone, 2005. "Duration, volume and volatility impact of trades," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 377-399, November.
  5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  6. Chou, Ray Yeutien, 2005. "Forecasting Financial Volatilities with Extreme Values: The Conditional Autoregressive Range (CARR) Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 561-82, June.
  7. Bouye, Eric & Durlleman, Valdo & Nikeghbali, Ashkan & Riboulet, Gaël & Roncalli, Thierry, 2000. "Copulas for finance," MPRA Paper 37359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  9. Bent Jørgensen & Sven Jesper Knudsen, 2004. "Parameter Orthogonality and Bias Adjustment for Estimating Functions," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 31(1), pages 93-114.
  10. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  11. Peter Xue-Kun Song, 2000. "Multivariate Dispersion Models Generated From Gaussian Copula," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 305-320.
  12. Neil Shephard, 1995. "Generalized linear autoregressions," Economics Papers 8., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  13. Benjamin M.A. & Rigby R.A. & Stasinopoulos D.M., 2003. "Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 214-223, January.
  14. Robert Engle, 2002. "New frontiers for arch models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 425-446.
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