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Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-Form Approach

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  • Yacine Ait-Sahalia

Abstract

When a continuous-time diffusion is observed only at discrete dates, not necessarily close together, the likelihood function of the observations is in most cases not explicitly computable. Researchers have relied on simulations of sample paths in between the observations points, or numerical solutions of partial differential equations, to obtain estimates of the function to be maximized. By contrast, we construct a sequence of fully explicit functions which we show converge under very general conditions, including non-ergodicity, to the true (but unknown) likelihood function of the discretely-sampled diffusion. We document that the rate of convergence of the sequence is extremely fast for a number of examples relevant in finance. We then show that maximizing the sequence instead of the true function results in an estimator which converges to the true maximum-likelihood estimator and shares its asymptotic properties of consistency, asymptotic normality and efficiency. Applications to the valuation of derivative securities are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1998. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-Form Approach," NBER Technical Working Papers 0222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0222
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    Cited by:

    1. Carrasco, Marine & Chernov, Mikhaël & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Ghysels, Eric, 2000. "Efficient Estimation of Jump Diffusions and General Dynamic Models with a Continuum of Moment Conditions," IDEI Working Papers 116, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised 2002.
    2. Pascal St-Amour, 2004. "Ratchet vs Blasé Investors and Asset Markets," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-11, CIRANO.
    3. Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Raman Uppal, 2004. "Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2809-2834, December.
    4. Pastorello, Sergio & Patilea, Valentin & Renault, Eric, 2003. "Iterative and Recursive Estimation in Structural Nonadaptive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 449-482, October.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim & Zhou, Hao, 2002. "Estimating stochastic volatility diffusion using conditional moments of integrated volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 33-65.
    6. Meddahi, Nour & Renault, Eric, 2004. "Temporal aggregation of volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 355-379.
    7. Daniel Ackerberg, 2009. "A new use of importance sampling to reduce computational burden in simulation estimation," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, pages 343-376.
    8. Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 1998. "Option Prices with Uncertain Fundamentals: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Implied Volatilities," CRSP working papers 485, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    9. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Antonio Rubia, 2004. "On The Small Sample Properties Of Dickey Fuller And Maximum Likelihood Unit Root Tests On Discrete-Sampled Short-Term Interest Rates," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-11, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    10. Brandt, Michael W. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2002. "Simulated likelihood estimation of diffusions with an application to exchange rate dynamics in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 161-210, February.
    11. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1998. "Nonstationary Density Estimation and Kernel Autoregression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1181, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    12. Siddhartha Chib & Michael K Pitt & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Likelihood based inference for diffusion driven models," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe17, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    13. Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 1999. "Option prices with uncertain fundamentals theory and evidence on the dynamics of implied volatilities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Pascal St-Amour, 2005. "Direct Preference for Wealth in Aggregate Household Portfolio," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 05.04, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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