IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Bias in the Estimation of the Mean Reversion Parameter in Continuous Time Models

  • Jun Yu

    (Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics, Singapore Management University)

Registered author(s):

It is well known that for continuous time models with a linear drift standard estimation methods yield biased estimators for the mean reversion parameter both in finite discrete samples and in large in-fill samples. In this paper, we derive two expressions to approximate the bias of the least squares/maximum likelihood estimator of the mean reversion parameter in the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with a known long run mean and with an unknown long run mean. The first expression mimics the bias formula of Marriott and Pope (1954) for the discrete time model and corresponds to the bias formula of Tang and Chen (2007). Simulations show that this expression does not work satisfactorily when the speed of mean reversion is slow. Slow mean reversion corresponds to the near unit root situation and is empirically realistic for many financial time series. An improvement is made in the second expression where a nonlinear correction term is included into the bias formula. It is shown that the nonlinear term is important in the near unit root situation. Simulations indicate that the second expression captures the magnitude, the curvature and the non-monotonicity of the actual bias better than the first expression.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.smu.edu.sg/institutes/skbife/downloads/CoFiE/Working%20Papers/Bias%20in%20the%20Estimation%20of%20the%20Mean%20Reversion%20Parameter%20in%20Continuous%20Time%20Models.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics in its series Working Papers with number CoFie-06-2008.

as
in new window

Length: 27 Pages
Date of creation: Apr 2007
Date of revision: Oct 2008
Publication status: Published in SMU-SKBI CoFie Working Paper
Handle: RePEc:skb:wpaper:cofie-06-2008
Contact details of provider: Postal: 50 Stamford Road, Singapore 178903
Phone: (65) 6828 0877
Fax: (65) 6828 0888
Web page: http://www.smu.edu.sg/institutes/skbife/index.asp
More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
  2. Oliver Linton, 1996. "An Asymptotic Expansion in the Garch(1,1) Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1118, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Jun Yu & Peter Phillips, 2004. "Jackknifing Bond Option Prices," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 115, Econometric Society.
  4. Yongmiao Hong, 2005. "Nonparametric Specification Testing for Continuous-Time Models with Applications to Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 37-84.
  5. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Magdalinos, Tassos, 2009. "Unit Root And Cointegrating Limit Theory When Initialization Is In The Infinite Past," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1682-1715, December.
  6. Vinod, H.D. & Shenton, L.R., 1996. "Exact Moments for Autor1egressive and Random walk Models for a Zero or Stationary Initial Value," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 481-499, August.
  7. Robert C. Merton, 1980. "On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2000. "Econometric analysis of realised volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Economics Papers 2001-W4, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 05 Jul 2001.
  9. Peter C.B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2007. "Simulation-based Estimation of Contingent-claims Prices," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1596, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995. "Nonparametric Pricing of Interest Rate Derivative Securities," NBER Working Papers 5345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 1999. "Transition Densities for Interest Rate and Other Nonlinear Diffusions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1361-1395, 08.
  12. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
  13. James G. MacKinnon & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., . "Approximate Bias Correction in Econometrics," GSIA Working Papers 1997-36, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  14. Tang, Cheng Yong & Chen, Song Xi, 2009. "Parameter estimation and bias correction for diffusion processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 65-81, April.
  15. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S85-118, Suppl. De.
  16. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July.
  17. Andrew W. Lo, . "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Generalized Ito Processes with Discretely Sampled Data," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-86, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  18. Pritsker, Matt, 1998. "Nonparametric Density Estimation and Tests of Continuous Time Interest Rate Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 449-87.
  19. Federico M. Bandi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003. "Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 241-283, January.
  20. Rilstone, Paul & Srivastava, V. K. & Ullah, Aman, 1996. "The second-order bias and mean squared error of nonlinear estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 369-395, December.
  21. Elerain, Ola & Chib, Siddhartha & Shephard, Neil, 2001. "Likelihood Inference for Discretely Observed Nonlinear Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 959-93, July.
  22. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  23. Darrell Duffie & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1990. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," NBER Technical Working Papers 0087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
  25. Ullah, Aman, 2004. "Finite Sample Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 1, number 9780198774488, March.
  26. Bandi, Federico M., 2002. "Short-term interest rate dynamics: a spatial approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 73-110, July.
  27. Federico M. Bandi & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2005. "A Simple Approach to the Parametric Estimation of Potentially Nonstationary Diffusions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1522, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  28. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
  29. Ai[dieresis]t-Sahalia, Yacine & Yu, Jialin, 2006. "Saddlepoint approximations for continuous-time Markov processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 507-551, October.
  30. Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 1996. "Unit roots and the estimation of interest rate dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 215-238, June.
  31. Bao, Yong, 2007. "The Approximate Moments Of The Least Squares Estimator For The Stationary Autoregressive Model Under A General Error Distribution," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(05), pages 1013-1021, October.
  32. Stanton, Richard, 1997. " A Nonparametric Model of Term Structure Dynamics and the Market Price of Interest Rate Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1973-2002, December.
  33. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S63-84, Suppl. De.
  34. Bao, Yong & Ullah, Aman, 2007. "The second-order bias and mean squared error of estimators in time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 650-669, October.
  35. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-65, January.
  36. Abadir, Karim M., 1993. "Ols Bias in a Nonstationary Autoregression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 81-93, January.
  37. Phillips, P C B, 1972. "The Structural Estimation of a Stochastic Differential Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1021-41, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:skb:wpaper:cofie-06-2008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.