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Option Prices with Uncertain Fundamentals: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Implied Volatilities

  • ALEXANDER DAVID
  • PIETRO VERONESI
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    File URL: http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/finance/papers/optionDavid.pdf
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    Paper provided by Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago in its series CRSP working papers with number 485.

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    Date of creation: Nov 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:wop:chispw:485
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    1. René Garcia & Richard Luger & Éric Renault, 2001. "Asymmetric Smiles, Leverage Effects and Structural Parameters," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-01, CIRANO.
    2. Jacquier, Eric & Jarrow, Robert, 2000. "Bayesian analysis of contingent claim model error," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 145-180.
    3. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green & Vasant Naik, 1999. "Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1553-1607, October.
    4. Gennotte, Gerard, 1986. " Optimal Portfolio Choice under Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 733-46, July.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    6. Stein, Elias M & Stein, Jeremy C, 1991. "Stock Price Distributions with Stochastic Volatility: An Analytic Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 727-52.
    7. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, . "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," CRSP working papers 494, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    8. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    9. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    10. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-32, December.
    11. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
    12. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-30, August.
    13. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Clark, 1991. "The Equity Premium and the Risk Free Rate: Matching the Moments," NBER Working Papers 3752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Allan Timmerman & Massimo Guidolin, 2001. "Option prices and implied volatility dynamics under Bayesian learning," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 P3, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    15. Alexander David, 1993. "Fluctuating confidence and stock-market returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 461, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. John Y. Campbell, 1998. "Asset Prices, Consumption, and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 6485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. G. William Schwert, 1988. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Detemple, Jerome B, 1986. " Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 383-91, June.
    19. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-84, March.
    20. Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1998. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-Form Approach," NBER Technical Working Papers 0222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Bates, David S, 1991. " The Crash of '87: Was It Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1009-44, July.
    22. Bakshi, Gurdip & Madan, Dilip, 2000. "Spanning and derivative-security valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 205-238, February.
    23. Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
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