Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts
A voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility using ARCH and stochastic volatility models. While most of these studies have documented highly significant in-sample parameter estimates and pronounced intertemporal volatility persistence, traditional ex post forecast evaluation criteria suggest that the models provide seemingly poor volatility forecasts. Contrary to this contention, the authors show that volatility models produce strikingly accurate interdaily forecasts for the latent volatility factor that would be of interest in most financial applications. New methods for improved ex post interdaily volatility measurements based on high-frequency intradaily data are also discussed. Copyright 1998 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Volume (Year): 39 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 160 McNeil Building, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297|
Phone: (215) 898-8487
Fax: (215) 573-2057
Web page: http://www.econ.upenn.edu/ier
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0020-6598 Email: |
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:39:y:1998:i:4:p:885-905. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.